October 31, 2013
Forecasting the market for technologies and for product categories early in their commercial lifetimes is a very tricky business.
First there are no straight lines -- or even curved ones -- representing historical sales data that can be projected forward. Of course, reputable market intelligence companies, and there are some, don't make their predictions based only on the projection of historical data. They also interview individual manufacturers and supply-chain participants to obtain their predictions of their own output, and add up the results for a grand total. In addition, they interview major purchasers, such as Fry's and Best Buy, for estimates on how many units they expect to buy in the future. There is, of course, no guarantee that the number of units manufacturers expect to sell equals the number retailers expect to buy, which provides the opportunity for some creative number-crunching.
All of this assumes that everybody is giving honest answers to the market intelligen..Read more