Posts Tagged ‘Samsung’

CES: The Chinese Electronics Show?

In just a few weeks, I’m off to the International CES, or Consumer Electronics Show, in Las Vegas. CES is one of the world’s largest conventions and last year’s event attracted over 140,000 visitors, according to official CES PR.

I’m not sure how true that was – severe winter weather caused all kinds of flight cancellations in the Midwest and some folks never made it out in time. Still, “the joint was jumpin’!” as Fats Waller used to say. The aisles were certainly packed full of attendees and there were plenty of exhibits to take up my 3.5 days in Vegas.

One thing really stuck out this year. In recent years, more and more Chinese CE brands have been expanding their booth space, but this year featured some booths that were as large if not larger than those of more established Japanese brands like Toshiba, Panasonic, and Sharp.

Microsoft, who used to exhibit at the show, pulled out for 2013 and ceded their booth to Hisense, an industrial manufacturing giant in China. In 2014, the enormous Hisense booth featured TVs in all sizes and resolutions (including 4K), major appliances, computing products, and demonstrations of gesture and voice control.

Behind the LG booth, Changhong and Konka had large booths. The Changhong booth had a miniature city created in detail as the centerpiece of an exhibit of televisions and appliances. One of the latter featured a contemporary multi-range stove/oven combination with built-in LCD TV. In another section of the booth, Changhong showed a simple gesture control system, using a game of virtual darts.

Konka’s booth was distinguished by quantities of 2K and 4K TVs using both LCD and OLED technology. Curved televisions were quite the newsmaker in the Samsung and LG booths last January, but Konka had a few of them, too.

So did TCL, another Chinese conglomerate that manufactures RCA and Sanyo TVs sold in the United States. (They license the Sanyo name from Panasonic.) In addition to OLED and curved LCD displays, TCL showed a 110-inch behemoth with finger-tip gesture control and TVs with Roku functionality built-in.

Other Chinese brands that made the trek to Nevada included Haier (everything from televisions to microwaves and washer/dryer combos), China National Corporation (CNC, again a player in entertainment and white goods) and Skyworth, who showed a full range of TVs; flat and curved.

None of these companies was even on anyone’s radar a decade ago. (Well, maybe a few importers.) But the rise of Chinese manufacturing has led to unprecedented drops in the prices of consumer goods.

A good example would be the LCD TV market. A year ago, Chinese manufacturers determined that gearing up for Ultra HD TV production was a smarter move than chasing such high-priced exotic technologies like OLED TVs. Not surprisingly, they captured considerable domestic TV market share from CE giants Samsung and LG by doing so.

Now, we have multiple sources for various sizes of 4K LCD glass coming out of China, and the pricing we’re seeing on Ultra HD sets through December reflects the impact these 4K panels have had. It wasn’t difficult at all to buy a 55-inch 4K TV for less than $1,000, a price point that last year would buy you a 55-inch 2K TV.

Vizio, a major player in consumer TV, brought out a line of 4K TVs in September and by late November had implemented major discounts. Their P-series 65-inch Ultra HDTV had a list price of about $2,200 when it was announced in January, yet several brick-and-mortar retails stores had it for $1,500 with a bonus soundbar around Black Friday.

It might surprise you to find out just how many electronic devices are manufactured in China, from iPads and iPhones to Android tablets and phones, televisions, so-called wearable fitness electronics like wrist heart monitors, headphones and earbuds, and a plethora of wireless gadgets.

I was initially taken aback to see a large booth in the lower South Hall featuring a full range of commercial AV HDMI matrix switchers, distribution amplifiers, and signal format converters, manufactured by Shiny Bow, an obscure Chinese brand. Then I thought, “Why not? A lot of the stuff we use every day in commercial installs is made in China or at least assembled stateside from components and parts manufactured in China.”

The 110-inch LCD TV I mentioned earlier actually comes from a factory in the province of Shenzen, China, and is a joint venture between Samsung, TCL, and the local government that is formally known as China Star Optoelectronic Technologies, or CSOT. (Samsung also makes a TV that uses this large LCD panel.)

I  think you get the point: China Inc. is becoming a serious player in consumer (and commercial) electronics, and their expanding booths at CES drive the point home. In contrast, some of the brands whose booths used to dominate the Central Hall are shrinking, like Panasonic, Sharp, and Toshiba. (Mitsubishi is gone completely and Hitachi showed more commercial products than consumer last January.)

Given the growing market share of China in CE manufacturing and their ever-larger booths at trade shows, maybe referring to CES as the “Chinese Electronics Show” isn’t as facetious as it sounds…

Black Friday, In The Rear View Mirror

A story in today’s New York Times reveals that retail sales over the Thanksgiving / Black Friday weekend weren’t nearly as good as predicted, declining 11% Y-Y from 2013 according to the National Retail Federation. (That number includes both brick-and-mortar and online sales.)

To be sure, there is a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on as to why sales didn’t hit the NRF targets predicted for 2014. It could be that the average consumer is increasingly put off by the avalanche of Black Friday advertising (TV, radio, newspapers, online) and TV news footage showing shoppers slugging it out over $100 TVs.

Or, it could be that consumers, chastened by the 2007 – 2009 stock market crash and the Great Recession, are just reluctant to spend for the sake of spending. Perhaps would-be shoppers are fed up with big box store chains increasingly intruding on the one holiday that has largely managed to stay non-commercial – Thanksgiving.

Whatever the reasons, it was clear that people voted with their feet to stay home and skip the madness. Returning from a family get-together in New York, my wife and I stopped at a BJ’s in New Jersey to pick up a few sundry items and heck out the latest mobile phones for our upgrade in a few weeks.

The store was busy for a Friday afternoon, but not insanely so. There were about 10 people at the Verizon counter, scoping out the Samsung Galaxy 5, LG G3, Motorola Droid Turbo, and a few other models. We grabbed our paper goods and I wandered over to the TV section to see if there were any deals.

Not surprisingly, there were plenty. What did surprise me was the steep discounts on Ultra HDTVs, with some as steep as 50%. Samsung’s UN55HU6840 55-inch Ultra HD model was advertised at $899 through Saturday night, and there were plenty in stock. (Full retail is $1799.99.)

Samsung's entry-level 55-inch Ultra HD was marked down an astonishing 50% for the weekend.

Samsung’s entry-level 55-inch Ultra HD was marked down an astonishing 50% for the weekend.

Nearby, a Samsung 65-inch “loaded” 2K TV (3D, smart functions, Wi-Fi, the works) was marked down to $1169.99 from $2099, and this price was good through Sunday evening. Again, a huge discount, but there were plenty of them available with only a few tire-kickers spotted nearby.

Later Friday evening around 7:30 PM, we stopped by the BJ’s closest to home and saw the same TV deals there. The store was almost empty (you could hear the crickets chirping) and the Verizon stand was deserted except for three customer service agents. That, even though Verizon had some steep Black Friday discounts of their own, such as $250 off the price of a Samsung Galaxy 5 and “free” LG G3s after rebates (2-year activation required).

After several years of declining TV sales, manufacturers clearly want to bring back the good old days. The problem they’ve created now is that the average Joe isn’t going to understand with a TV with 10 additional inches, but half the screen resolution, sells for $250 more than a TV that’s 10 inches smaller but has four times the screen resolution.

No, I believe that what will motivate buyers to whip out their credit cards over the next couple of months before the Super Bowl will be a simple screen size / price equation. If Ultra HD sets are already edging below $1K for 55-inch and even 60-inch sizes on Black Friday, that’s where they’ll be again in mid-January during the peak of the TV selling season. “Ultra” is better than “2K” or “1080p,” right? Whatever “Ultra” means, right?

The cat has been let out of the bag, and what that will do to 2K TV prices is depress them even further. 55-inch smart 2K TVs were widely available all weekend at big box stores for less than $800. Why buy one of those if you could pick up a 4K model for just $100 more?

I’ve predicted that we will eventually see all TVs larger than 55 inches migrate to Ultra HD resolution, thanks to an oversupply of LCD panels, China’s ramped-up production, and slackening demand for TVs. That day may be coming faster than you think, based on Black Friday and Cyber Monday pricing…

4K & UHDTV: Once More Unto The Breach, Dear Friends…

Yesterday, TWICE reported that Samsung, Sony, and LG will partner with Best Buy on a 13-week consumer awareness campaign to increase interest in UHDTV and ultimately drive sales of 4K TVs.

The campaign starts tomorrow and is named “Believing Begins Here.” The Consumer Electronics Association had a part in developing the campaign, which will feature in-store demonstrations of UHDTV at 50 Best Buy locations in 11 major markets, including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia and Washington D.C.

The timing of this campaign is no coincidence. National Football League pre-season games have already started, and the first NCAA college football games are scheduled for August 28. And as we all know, nothing sells big-screen TVs like football!

The demonstrations will take place between 11 AM and 3 PM each Saturday for the duration of the campaign. According to the TWICE story, these three major TV brands (and hopefully others to be added later) “…have chosen the last remaining big-box CE specialty chain as their showcase.” (I’m sure HH Gregg and Frye’s would dispute that last statement!)

Does this bring back memories of the stumbling, awkward effort to promote 3D TV five years ago? It should, except there’s a difference this time around. For one thing, there aren’t any eyewear issues, because there’s no eyewear. Assuming BB does a good job with 4K content selection, anyone who happens to wander by the demo can easily and quickly check it out.

For another, there’s aren’t any “exclusive” 3D Blu-ray deals tied to specific manufacturers and TVs, a strategy that amounted to shooting one’s self in the foot back then. Throw in the battle between passive and active 3D, the eye disorders and vision issues almost a quarter of the population experiences, and a paucity of interesting 3D content readily available to viewers, and the obituary for 3D TV was quickly written.

This time around, Best Buy has decided to emphasize 2K/4K upconversion as a “future-proof” advantage of 4K TVs and will have adequate demos of 2K-to-4K program material to make their point. And to attract potential customers, the usual manufacturer promotions and sweepstakes/drawings will be conducted. Prizes include a 55-inch Sony, Samsung, or LG UHDTV with installation and Geek Squad service plan included. (By the way, a 55-inch Samsung 4K TV can be taken out of the box and up and running in about 5 minutes, based on my experiences at InfoComm during my 4K / UHDTV class.)

The television industry clearly has a lot more at stake in 2014 than it did in 2009. TV shipments have declined for two years in a row, and TV prices are collapsing with each quarter. (You can easily buy 60-inch LCD sets for less than $1,000 now, and LG has already dropped a 55-inch 4K “smart” model to less than $2,000.)

For some manufacturers like Panasonic, the TV business has been de-emphasized in favor of commercial electronics products and even beauty aids and appliances. (Panasonic now sources a lot of its LCD TV glass on the wholesale market from Taiwan and China.) For others like Mitsubishi, the business of manufacturing and selling TV is “history” as their profits slowly but inexorably evaporated to nothing.

One fact that Best Buy and its partners can’t really explain to consumers is the changing dynamics of the LCD panel and television components supply chain. Thanks to an aggressive push by Chinese manufacturers into the television business and an emphasis on 4K, we will soon see ALL TVs larger than 55 inches move exclusively to 4K glass, just as we saw the migration from 720p/768p glass to 1080p about 6-7 years ago.

The good news is; 2K-to-4K upscaling is comparatively easy, as my colleague Ken Werner has pointed out in a previous Display Daily. Some manufacturers are even building upscaling chips into HDMI interfaces and cables! So the Best Buy demos should be effective if they start with strong 2K content.

But there are always unanswered questions. Best Buy now sells Vizio TVs, and according to Vizio’s timetable, they will have a full range of heavily discounted UHDTVs available this fall, starting at $999 for a 50-inch TV and going all the way to $2,999 for a 75-inch set. In the key sizes of 55 and 65 inches, the prices will be $1,299 and $2,199, respectively. How does that price war help the Big 3? And why should Vizio have anything to do with this campaign when they can simply sit on the sidelines for a couple of months and then swoop in and capture sales based on their brand recognition?

More devil in the details: We still don’t have a 4K Blu-ray standard, and every month it is delayed lets more wind out of the BD sails. According to a recent Home Media story, consumer spending on streaming, downloads, and optical discs was flat through the first six months of this year, to the tune of $8.6B in the U.S.

The “details” show us that digital spending (downloads and streaming of movies and TV shows) increased by 17% ($3.6B) over the same time period in 2013. Meanwhile, spending on optical discs (DVD and Blu-ray) continues to drop, falling 8% ($3.3B) in the Y-Y comparison. Additionally, rentals of optical discs dropped 14% ($1.7B) compared to the first six months of 2013. Brick and mortar store rentals took an enormous hit of 33%.

Breaking out the Blu-ray category, the story says that Blu-ray disc sales were up by 10% during Q2 ’14, with new theatrical releases up 18% in the same time period. But that’s not enough to offset the overall decline in interest by consumers to buy or rent optical discs. (No numbers were provided for Blu-ray sales revenues.)

Will 4K suffer the same fate as 3D? Not a chance. As I just pointed out, many of our big screen TVs will employ 4K panels exclusively in the not-too-distant future. The infrastructure for 4K streaming is being built and the sales and rental numbers show consumers increasingly prefer that delivery format to accumulating a pile of discs.

I plan to check out the 4K demos myself in “secret shopper” mode and will have a report in a future DD.

Well, Whaddya Know!

It’s late July, and the summer doldrums have definitely arrived. The flow of press releases has slowed to a trickle, and all kinds of strange stuff arrives in my mailbox several times a day – most of it destined for the recycling bin. Even so, there are a few stories worth mentioning.  Let’s take a quick glance.

The tables have turned: Remember when your parents limited the number of hours of TV you could watch in a day? Well, it appears Millennials are self-regulating, when it comes to the boob tube.  According to a story on MediaPost from last Thursday, Nielsen has discovered that the number of hours spent viewing traditional TV continues to decline year-over-year for this demographic.

Nielsen’s current numbers show that the average Millennial watched a little less than 22 hours of traditional TV, per week, during the first quarter of this year. That’s a decline of 14 minutes per day from Q1 2013. In contrast, their parents (50 – 64 and 65+) watched more than twice that amount at 45 and 52 hours, respectively. (Well, us Baby Boomers grew up with television, so maybe that’s not surprising.)

Much ado about nothing? Aereo, the renegade broadcast TV-over-IP “antenna” service that lost a major ruling in the U. S. Supreme Court last month, flip-flopped in its assertion that it wasn’t a cable TV system and insisted it was, applying for a license to broadcast copyrighted content from the U.S. Copyright Office. But Aereo’s request was just turned down by that august body, putting its future into limbo.

Now, a story on the GigaOM Web site suggests that Aereo had maybe 100,000 subscribers at most. How do we know that? Well, as part of its application to the U.S. Copyright Office, Aereo submitted a payment of $5,310.74 to cover “royalty and filing fees” from January 2012 through the end of last year. Using some basic assumptions about Aereo (such as its monthly subscriber fee) and royalty payments of .33 to 1.064% of gross profits, law professor Bruce Boyden backed into a guess of around $1 million gross revenue for that time period.

That’s not a great ROI for the time and investments Aereo made, and the article stated that, even if all of the $1M in revenue came in 2013, it represents only 10,000 subscribers.  We’ll have to see what the next steps are, pending more hearings in court next month.

Not selling like hotcakes, Part I: Apple’s recent financial results show that the company sold 35.2 million iPhones in Q2 2014. That’s up over 12% Y-Y and was largely driven by a big jump in sales in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, a.k.a the BRIC countries. Good news, but offset by the fact that iPad sales dropped 9.2% in the same quarter. That follows a 16% decline in iPad sales in Q1 2014. What’s going on here?

One obvious answer is that consumers don’t turn over their tablets quite as often as their phones. I’ve seen other research that shows a retention rate of 2+ years for tablets, which implies satisfaction with these products. But that doesn’t help Apple’s bottom line, which is why they’re pushing into the “wearables” market – and just got a patent for a new smartwatch called iTime that features sensors, in-strap circuitry, and support for arm and wrist gestures, according to the ETCentric Web site. Will it offset declining iPad sales?

Not selling like hotcakes, Part II: Finally, from the Home Media Web site, we get a story that says “UHDTVs are underwhelming at the marketplace,” based on market research by HIS. The share of UHDTV shipments among the top 13 LCD brands reached 5% in May, up from 4% in April, 3% in March, and 2% in February. (Hmmm…so, they’ve increased by more than 100% in three months? That’s not too shoddy!)

IHS goes on to state that “UHDTV pricing remains too high to gain meaningful market share.” Well, duh! Until recently, all Japanese and Korean UHDTV sets in the 55-inch class were priced close to $3,000, and we know that’s a non-starter. But LG recently cut its 55-inch 4K LED TV to $1,999, and Vizio will be launching a 55-inch 4K LED for just $1,300 in the fourth quarter.

HIS analyst Jusy Hong was quoted in the story as saying that UHDTV shipments will increase to 14.5 million by the end of the year, up from a paltry 2 million in 2013 – and that’s nothing to sneeze at.  Samsung and LG are the kingmakers here, accounting for 46% of all UHDTV shipments in May. In contrast, the “big six” Chinese brands – Haier, Hisense, Skyworth, TCL, Konka, and Changhong – captured a combined total of 45% market share in UHDTVs.

Gotta run! The reclining chair and an ice-cold glass of lemonade are calling…

Of Phablets and 4K

Lately, trying to predict sales trends is like shooting at a moving target. And just when we think we have a market segment figured out, it turns in a new direction.

So it goes with the shipments of tablets, which most analysts had pegged to grow by 20% in 2014 over last year. But hold on – a recent report from IDC has dropped that number to 12% after Q1 shipment numbers came in.

In a January press release, IDC had predicted that tablet shipments would hit 270M units this year. At some point, that number was revised downward to 261M units. Now, IDC is forecasting 2014 shipments will drop to 245M units, based on lower-than-expected Q1 results.

What’s the reason for the fall-off? IDC states one obvious cause: People are keeping tablets longer than expected. Unlike smartphones, which are usually recycled every two years (the length of the typical service contract and phone battery), many older tablets are still in service. My wife still uses her iPad 2 daily, and I’ve gotten two+ years out of my Nook HD tablet.

IDC also found that older tablets are often “handed down” to another family member, which represents another lost sale. The vast majority of tablets are using conventional Wi-Fi connections to get data, which means they aren’t sold with annual contracts for LTE service.

But there’s another factor that IDC identified, and that is the growing popularity of large smartphones, or “phablets” as some wags have named them. Phablets are phones with screens larger than 5 inches, although IDC prefers to start the category at 5.5 inches. These gadgets can do everything a tablet can (plus make phone calls and send/receive texts), and many consumers find they’re large enough to stand in for a tablet screen.

The phablet category really took off when Samsung’s Galaxy smartphones broke the 5” screen barrier over a year ago. At the time, many analysts predicted that screen size would be too large for consumers. Guess what? They’ve been flying off the shelves. And now we’re starting to see 6” smartphones from the likes of LG and HTC. (LG even has a curved model, the G Flex.)

LG's new G-Flex curved phone has a 6-inch screen. Too big? Apparently not!

LG’s new G-Flex curved phone has a 6-inch screen. Too big? Apparently not!

IDC’s research states that smartphone shipments (30.1 million units) increased from 4.3% in Q1 2013 to 10.5% in Q1 2014. Consequently, shipments of larger tablets (8” – 11”) are expected to increase this year by 3% over 2013, while 7” – 8” tablets will see a decline of 5% in the same time period.

Even though phablets are pushing the limits of screen sizes, they’re finding a sweet spot with the public. The same thing appears to be happening on a smaller scale with 4K (Ultra HD) TVs, which IDC also tracks.

According to their research, worldwide 4K TV shipments reached over one million per month in March and are expected to hit 15.2 million for the full year. That’s better than most analysts expected, given the low awareness of 4K by the general public. IDC also found that the average selling price for Ultra HD TVs has fallen 86% since 2012 (when there were a handful of models) from $7,851 to $1,120 at the end of March.

According to a new report from Business Insider Market Intelligence, 4K TV sales are largely propelled by low prices in China, where many fabs are moving to 4K LCD panel production and leaving low-margin 2K panels behind. Indeed; the BI press release identified the Chinese market as “most accessible” for 4K TV.

In North America, BI predicts that 10% of all households will have at least one 4K TV by the end of 2018, and that worldwide shipments of 4K TVs will hit 11 million units by the end of 2016. We’ll no doubt see Korean manufacturers switch over to 4K LCD panels in larger sizes within two years, as the profit margins on 2K glass have dwindled to almost nothing.

There’s a precedent for the move to 4K, and that is the transition almost eight years ago from 720p/768p display resolution to 1080p. Now, history is repeating itself, and it’s likely that LCD TVs larger than 55” will all be Ultra HD in short order.

Have your doubts? At CES, Vizio announced a fall line-up of Ultra HD Smart TVs with eye-popping prices, such as a 50” model for $999, a 55-inch version of just $1,300, and a 65-inch offering for $2,200. Those prices aren’t much higher than what “loaded” smart 3D 2K LCD TVs command now. Vizio will even have a 70-inch 4K set for $2,600!

Consider also that Chinese manufacturers are setting up shop to build LCD TVs close to the US market. Last month, TCL purchased Sanyo’s TV manufacturing facility in Tijuana, Mexico, giving it a big advantage over other Chinese brands in shipping and tariffs. And you can bet that 4K Ultra HD TVs will be rolling off that line in the not-too-distant future.

By the way, 4K and phablets have already intersected. At least five new smartphones support native 3840x2160p/30 video recording; among them Sony’s Experia Z2, Samsung’s Galaxy Note 3 and S5, LG’s Optimus G Pro, and Asus’ Liquid S2. And three of them fall squarely into the phablet category, providing me with an appropriate wrap-up to my story…