Posts Tagged ‘4K TV’

Blu-Ray: On The Endangered Species List?

One of the problems with market research is that you often wind up with conflicting data from two or more sources. Or, the data presents a “conclusion” that’s all too easy to “spin” to advance an argument or make a point.

Ever since the two adversaries in the blue laser optical disc format squared off with pistols at twenty paces in 2008 (and one lost), the clear trend of media consumption has favored streaming and digital downloads. Entire business models have collapsed as a result, including Hollywood Video and Blockbuster Video sales and rental stores. The last two Blockbuster outlets in Alaska are closing, leaving just one solitary brick-and-mortar operation in Oregon.

With Netflix now serving over 100 million subscribers around the world and Amazon rumored to be working on a smart TV for delivering Prime video, the tide hasn’t stopped rising. Purchases of digital downloads and streaming media surpassed physical media in dollar value way back in 2015 and the gap continues to widen as more customers take advantage of fast broadband, smarter DVRs, and improved codecs for reliable delivery of Full HD AND 4K video over networks.

My industry colleague Greg Tarr recently posted a story on the HD GURU Web site quoting NPD Group analyst Stephen Baker as saying that, “…Ultra HD Blu-ray player sales increased by more than 150% over 2017 and the revenue is up 61%. The {Average Selling Price] ASP is $165 this year compared to $272 for the first 5 months of 2017.” Baker further pointed out that that sales of Ultra HD Blu-ray players in the United States increased 82% in May and revenue increased 13% with an ASP of $168. NPD estimates that 4K Ultra HD players represented about 15% of Blu-ray unit sales for the first five months of 2018.

Well, that certainly sounds like great news, doesn’t it? But some perspective is in order.

First off, all of these $168 players (which once cost north of $300 – $500 not long ago) also have built-in WiFi connections and can stream content from the likes of Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, and Hulu. And of course, they’re backward-compatible with standard Blu-ray, DVD, and CD audio formats.

Given the ridiculously low prices on Ultra HDTVs these days (such as 55-inch models with HDR 10 support for as low as $450), many consumers may simply be in a major TV and home entertainment upgrade cycle. I bought my first 1080p TV in 2008, a 42-inch Panasonic plasma, for about $1200. And I’m now ready to upgrade from a 2012-vintage, 47-inch 1080p LCD model, to a 55-inch or 60-inch smart 4K set, which with HDR support will cost me about as much as that 42-inch Panasonic from 2008.

Will I pick up an Ultra HD player too? Hey, for $150, why not? And will I watch a lot of UHD Blu-ray discs on it? Probably not, since I will be able to stream Netflix and Prime video at 4K resolution. Will that streamed 4K content look as good as a physical disc playing out at more than 100 Mb/s? Maybe not, but on the other hand, I won’t have to buy or rent any more discs. And based on my experience the other night watching “The Catcher Was A Spy” from Amazon Prime, I will be quite happy with the result.

Yes, you can buy a 4K TV at Shop Rite, available in the bread aisle. (Photo courtesy Norm Hurst)

As the saying goes, facts are stubborn things. The facts are; physical media sales have been in slow and steady decline for over a decade (and continue to decline) and Ultra HD BD disc sales constitute a small portion of overall media consumption. For that matter, so do sales of players: Research firm Futuresource predicts that global UHD Blu-ray player unit shipments should hit just 2.3 million, with more than 50% of those sales taking place in North America.

To put that in perspective, ABI Research forecasts that worldwide Ultra HD flat panel TV shipments will surpass 102 million in 2018, representing 44% of all WW flat panel TV shipments (about 232 million). So even with “record” sales growth, Ultra HD Blu-ray player sales will only constitute about 2.2% of Ultra HDTV sales, with the bulk of those player sales taking place in North America and Europe.

ABI also predicts that just shy of 200 million Ultra HDTVs will be sold in 2023 worldwide, with the majority taking place in China (which doesn’t use our Blu-ray format but instead relies on “China Blue,” the old HD-DVD standard). Coincidentally, Tarr’s article states that, “…market research predicts that blue laser optical disc player shipments will decrease from 72.1 million in 2017 to 68 million in 2023. Unit shipments for the global Blu-ray media market are expected to decrease from 595 million in 2017 to 516 million in 2023.”

That trend would seem to be at odds with TV purchases, according to an April press release from Futuresource. “We believe 4K UHD TV sets will ship over 100 million units this year, equivalent to two-thirds of the entire large screen market,” comments David Tett, Market Analyst at Futuresource Consulting. “Consumers increasingly want larger screens, and this is playing nicely into the 4K UHD proposition. HDR is expected to be present in 60% of 4K UHD sets this year.”

Digesting all of this data reveals that (a) 4K TV sales continue grow to worldwide (which is also being driven by a changeover from Full HD to 4K TV fab production, but that’s another story), (b) 4K TV sales will constitute an ever-larger percentage of overall TV sales by 2023 – if not close to 90%, (c) more and more consumers are streaming and downloading digital video than purchasing optical discs, (d) even with strong sales through the first six months of 2018, Ultra HD Blu-ray players are selling at a rate of just two for every 100 Ultra HDTVs purchased, and (e) overall sales of Blu-ray players of all kinds are in steady decline.

I fully expect to hear all of the arguments for UHD Blu-ray, picture quality being one of them. But if I can stream UHD content with HDR at acceptable quality levels, why do I need to buy discs? I’ll have access to an enormous cloud library and I’ll be more environmentally conscious, too. Besides, I rarely watch a movie more than once (look at the piles of old DVDs people try to get rid of at garage sales or foist on libraries). There’s plenty of good content available from video-on-demand.

Ultra HD video content with HDR @ 16 Mb/s that looks as good as UHD Blu-ray? Yep, Fraunhofer IHS showed it at NAB 2016.

And UHD BD supporters neglect to consider all of the continual advancements being made with codecs. A couple of years ago, Fraunhofer showed absolutely stunning Ultra HD video with dynamic HDR on a 65-inch UHDTV, encoded with HEVC H.265 at an average bit rate of 16 Mb/s – 15% of the peak streaming rate for Ultra HD Blu-ray – and they were encoding tricky stuff like confetti, wind-whipped waves, and moving objects with plenty of changing specular highlights. All heavy lifting.

Granted, it took two computers to do the software encoding and decoding. But those two computers can easily be reduced to a set of chips with firmware and a powerful CPU and installed inside my next TV.

So what would I need an optical disc player for?

The 2018 HPA Tech Retreat: Digital In The Desert

2018 brought a new venue (The J.W. Marriott) for the annual Hollywood Professional Association Technology Retreat and a program chock-full of interesting talks, not to mention the usual enormous Innovation Zone (formerly the Demo Room). I first attended the Retreat in 2002 out of simple curiosity, and back then there were perhaps 100 – 120 in attendance. Zoom ahead to 2018, and well over 600 people made the trek to Palm Desert.

The primary focus of HPA has been and continues to be post-production, and in recent years there have been numerous presentations on managing workflows, metadata, and “director’s intent.” So it went this year, with an entire section of the Innovation Zone devoted to the Interchange Media Format (IMF, not the International Monetary Fund).

But there’s more to the conference than workflows. I can’t remember precisely when I started doing this presentation, but I attempt to recap my impressions of the Consumer Electronics Show every year – and do it in exactly 30 minutes. Jim Burger from Thomson Coburn opens the first day with a review of what’s happening in Washington DC with regard to copyrights and other legal issues, and we both try to spice things up with a little humor here and there. (Very little…)

Over 600 people attended this year’s Tech Retreat.

Of course, there are other things to talk about, such as the emergence of solid-state cinema screens using light-emitting diodes and how likely they are to replace conventional digital cinema projectors. Peter Lude of Mission Rock Digital covered this topic nicely and it appears we’re not quite there yet, although it’s been my experience that Asian countries are often happy to dive into new cinema technologies where we in the U.S. and Canada would proceed more cautiously.

High dynamic range (HDR) is another hot topic, as you might imagine. One of the highlights of my talk was how cheap Ultra HDTVs have become, with certain models available for as little as $8 per diagonal inch and equipped with basic HDR (HDR 10 static metadata) for just $1 more per diagonal inch. My conclusion was that the economic impact of televisions on the CE world has been greatly diminished – televisions are commodities now, and the average consumer buys TVs these days by looking for the best price on the biggest screen they can fit at home.

Of course, my observations stirred up a bunch of discussions and counter-arguments, the strongest coming from representatives of Sony. From my perspective, no one hurts themselves by waiting a bit longer to invest in an HDR TV, as there are still a few bugs in the system. Not all HDR formats are supported on all models, and some content players and TVs don’t establish HDMI connections correctly, enabling a lower bit rate connection and blocking HDR signals –  something that would drive the average viewer crazy.

HDR was a hot topic at the Retreat and Panasonic demonstrated dual HDR (left) and SDR (right) output from their newest 4K camera.

The Sony camp argued that it has never been a better time to buy an Ultra HDTV with HDR, and in fact older models might actually out-perform newer models as the race to lower manufacturing costs could sacrifice quality. However; Sony’s own Z9 LCD Ultra HDTV, held up as a paragon of HDR playback (albeit a very expensive one at $9,000 originally), has been discontinued and the likely cause is far lower prices for OLED and quantum dot-equipped LCD TVs. And they did admit that there are still ample problems with HDMI interconnections and clock rate detection that adversely impact Ultra HD playback on current models of televisions.

The elephant in the room is that there isn’t enough HDR content to watch in the first place. Yes, Comcast provided 4K coverage of the Olympics via streaming connections, some of it with HDR. And DirecTV (AT&T) carried the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 4K with HDR. But the pickings are still slim. An informal show of hands after Day 2 seemed to confirm my advice to sit on one’s hands – more attendees who were considering an Ultra HDTV with HDR purchase seemed happy to wait it out a bit longer than those who just had to jump in and get a set today.

I don’t know of too many people who have picked up Ultra HD Blu-ray players to watch HDR content, either (I haven’t) but I am aware of a couple of instances where said players didn’t work correctly with compatible TVs. In one case, the manufacturer of the TV and UHD BD player were the same! But given how low prices have dropped for HDR-equipped sets, it appears that HDR will become a standard feature soon enough, just like the late, lamented 3D did. And UHD BD players will come down in price to match conventional Full HD models soon enough.

Thursday’s session opened with a panel discussion on HDR “flavors” and featured participants from Dolby, Sony, Samsung, and the BBC. It was timely: A recent article in the Hollywood Reporter talked about people getting confused with all of the different HDR formats – HDR 10, Dolby Vision, Hybrid Log Gamma, and HDR 10+ (Samsung’s take on dynamic metadata). So far, I know of only one manufacturer (LG) that supports four HDR formats (HDR 10, Dolby Vision, HLG, and Technicolor, which is more of a transport than a display format). In theory, the TV should recognize these formats automatically, but consumers may perceive we’re in the midst of another “format war” like we were with Blu-ray and HD DVD ten years ago.

This panel was followed by another titled, “Establishing Metadata Guidelines for Downstream Image Presentation Management on Consumer Displays.” In other words, maintaining creative intent all the way through to the television. Another panel on Day 2 discussed the Academy Color Exchange System (ACES), which was developed to ensure color volume and data didn’t change from the camera through post and mastering. There is a never-ending discussion about preserving the director’s and colorists’ intent to the TV screen, but that’s much easier said than done – TV manufacturers have very different axes to grind.

While we already have a system to deliver HDR metadata to televisions using CTA 861.3 extensions, my thought was that perhaps the Cinema/Movie/User picture settings on Ultra HDTVs could be configured to also recognize ACES metadata and provide that more accurate cinema experience. This would involve encoding that data into Blu-ray discs and also streaming content, but it shouldn’t be impossible to pull off – and would actually provide some value to manufacturers, especially if they could re-label this setting “Academy” instead of Cinema or Movie.

I hosted three breakfast roundtables during the conference on OLED technology, HDR signal interfacing, and gadget fatigue. And the last roundtable was the most intriguing, as my colleagues talked about mixed experiences with Alexa, Siri, and Google, using flip phones more than smart phones, trying out VR goggles that are now gathering dust, preferring hardcover and softcover books to tablets, and just trying to disconnect whenever possible.

The fact is; we live in a world of abundant, cheap electronics. It’s hard to disconnect from all of this stuff as it’s become an integral part of our lives, but it appears some of us are trying to maintain some separation and are questioning why everything in our lives needs to be connected, as we were repeatedly told at CES 2018. I can say that a majority of HPA attendees don’t think it’s a good idea to have everything in their house connected to the Internet, based on a show of hands after Day 1.

If you’ve never attended the Tech Retreat, you should. The general sessions are thought-provoking and the sidebar conversations and informal discussions (including the breakfast roundtables) are well worth the trip. I’m looking forward to the 2019 Retreat, at which I will likely report once again on my impressions of CES….

The End Of One Era And The Start Of Another

Panasonic, a long-time leader in consumer electronics announced on Tuesday (May 31) that it would stop manufacturing large LCD panels for televisions at its Himeji fab in western Japan. Production will wind down this summer and stop completely in September, with the balance of IPS LCD panels going to transportation and medical markets.

Himeji was a relatively new fab, having come inline in 2010. This is where Panasonic’s IPS-Alpha LCD TVs were born even as the company’s plasma TV manufacturing business was going into a nosedive. And that line of TVs was well-received by the trade press and the general public.

But it turned out that LCD panel manufacturing in Japan is a costly effort, compared to manufacturing in Korea and China. Indeed; many Panasonic LCD TVs use glass that’s made across the China Sea, and that trend goes back a couple of years. According to a story on the Reuters Web site, “…the plant has never logged a profit during years of heavy price competition with South Korean and Chinese rivals.”

It doesn’t help that Panasonic has virtually no U.S. market share in LCD TVs, having fallen behind Vizio and Hisense even as competitors like Toshiba, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, and Hitachi have all packed it in over the past decade. And with all of the company’s eggs in the plasma basket for many years, they were late to wake up and smell the coffee.

A quick online check of Best Buy, HH Gregg, and Fry’s Web sites showed no listings for Panasonic TVs – not even among Ultra HD models. So I went to the company’s U.S. Web site and searched again, finding six models of Ultra HDTVs ranging in size from 50 inches to 85 inches – and all of them carried the notation “Not available.”

I got the same results when I clicked on “View All TVs,” and actually got a smaller selection of Ultra HD models to peruse. So no major retailer carries Panasonic TVs now. (Not even Sears, which actually has a Kenmore line of HDTVs and even 4K TVs!)

Some really nice-looking Ultra HDTVs here...but ya can't buy them.

Some really nice-looking Ultra HDTVs here…but ya can’t buy them.

According to the Reuters story, “The decision to close the (Himeji LCD TV panel) business comes after Panasonic scrapped a company-wide revenue target of 10 trillion yen ($90.1 billion) for the year through March 2019 to focus on profitability.” Based on what I found out, it would appear that the entire TV business in North America (if not elsewhere) is also at an end.

Ironically, I just received an invite from Panasonic’s PR agency to come see their new Blu-ray player (DMP-UB900) at the company’s corporate headquarters in a few weeks. So my question now becomes, “Why are you showing me an Ultra HD Blu-ray player when you don’t seem to have any Ultra HDTV models to go with it?”

Puzzling indeed, especially in light of the rapid move away from 1080p (Full HD) televisions to Ultra HD models that’s taking place all over the world! And you need no further proof than to go on the aforementioned big box store Web sites and take a gander at the selection of Full HD and Ultra HDTV models.

A quick search showed that Best Buy currently has 108 models of 2160p (Ultra HD) sets for sale, compared to 58 Full HD models and 27 720p models.  The picture isn’t quite as clear at HH Gregg, as they show 133 “LED TVs” (presumably Full HD) and 78 Ultra HD models. And Fry’s shows two different categories for “4K TVs,” although those account for 173 models with Full HD showing 220 models.

As you can see in the left column, Best Buy now has about 50 more models of Ultra HDTVs for sale than Full HD set (they're just SO 2005!).

As you can see in the left column, Best Buy now has about 50 more models of Ultra HDTVs for sale than Full HD set (they’re just SO 2005!).

So what to make of this? Simple – the adoption rate for Ultra HDTV sets is accelerating to the point where (at Best Buy, at least) the offerings now exceed those with Full HD resolution. Keep in mind that the first Ultra HDTVs appeared on our shores not quite four years ago, used the LG 84-inch IPS LCD panel, and cost anywhere between $15,000 and $20,000.

Now, you can buy a first-tier 55-inch Samsung Ultra HD “smart” LCD TV for $700.  As I’m writing this, Vizio has a 50-inch “smart” 4K model for $499, as does Insignia. Westinghouse goes them one better with a 55-inch 4K set for the same price, and LG is clearing out a 49-inch Ultra HD set for $550.  And Hisense recently announced HDR models for less than $600! Mind-boggling.

So here we go at warp speed; zooming into a new world of 4K TVs as Full HD sets fade into the distance, having first appeared a little over a decade ago. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – your next big screen LCD TV is going to be an Ultra HD model, especially if you pick it up in December, or wait a little longer into 2017.

And your new Ultra HDTV will NOT be a Panasonic model, based on what my Web search revealed. In fact, there’s a good chance your next Ultra HDTV could be a Chinese brand, like Hisense or TCL, thanks to their very aggressive pricing. (But make sure your set supports high dynamic range to be future-proof!)

4K, Collapsing Prices, and the Declining Importance of Hardware

As I write this, the 2015 season of the National Football League is about to get underway, with last year’s Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you’re not a football fan, why should you care?

Simple: Football, more than any other sport or event, drives the sale of televisions. And the TV business is in a major funk right now.

According to IHS’ latest survey of the global television market, worldwide shipments of TVs fell an astounding 8 percent Y-Y during the second quarter of 2015. Even though LCD TVs now account for almost 99% of all TV shipments, “…LCD TV sales have not made up for the lost volume of cathode-ray tube (CRT) and plasma televisions, which have largely left the marketplace.”

The one bright spot? 4K. The IHS report states, “4K TV was a bright spot in the global TV market, with unit shipments growing 197 percent year over year in Q2 2015, to reach 6.2 million units. The growth in 4K TVs is the direct result of increased price erosion and more affordable tiers of 4K models becoming available.”

I’ve written on numerous occasions that we’re on the cusp of an industry switchover from 1080p resolution to Ultra HD (3840×2160) for precisely this reason, plus the fact that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to make any money on the manufacturing and sales of 1080p-resolution LCD panels. That’s part of the reason that Sharp – once the premier brand of LCD televisions – finally threw in the towel and exited the North American television business, selling their Mexican factory and “Sharp” brand to Hisense.

Need proof? Check out the most recent HH Gregg and Best Buy circulars. You can now buy a 48-inch Haier 1080p LCD TV for $298 or a 60-inch LG 1080p smart TV for $898. Want Ultra HD resolution instead? Samsung’s got a curved 55-inch smart model for $1198, and a 60-inch smart set for $1498.

Samsung has slashed the prices on its new S-line of HDR Ultra HDTVs by as much as 20%.

Samsung has slashed the prices on its new S-line of HDR Ultra HDTVs by as much as 20%.

But here’s the kicker: Samsung’s HDR Ultra HDTVs (S-UHD) are almost the same price. A 50-inch model (UN50JS7000) is tagged at $1098 by HH Gregg, while the 55-inch version is $1298. Too expensive? Sharp’s got a 43-inch Ultra HD offering for $598, a 50-inch set for $748, and a 55-inch version for $848. (Not to be left out, LG has cut the price on their 55-inch smart Ultra HDTV to $998, and they’ve also got a 49-inch UHD set for $798.)

Now, step back from that mass of numbers, and think about this: Those are insanely low prices for Ultra HDTVs, which were tagged around $15 – $20K when they first came to these shores in 2012. I know of several friends and acquaintances that had to replace older TVs recently, and every one of them bought an Ultra HD set because of these falling prices.

If overall sales of TVs are falling but 4K TV sales are increasing, it doesn’t take a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing: 4K and Ultra HD are rapidly taking over the TV marketplace for sets larger than 42 inches. This is happening so quickly that by the end of next year, ALL TVs larger than 50 inches will be Ultra HD models.

There’s a bigger message here. The money isn’t in hardware anymore – it’s moving to software. I find it hard to believe that I would spend more in a year for cable TV and Internet service than the cost of an Ultra HDTV, but that’s exactly what’s happening. Content is king, and who cares about the hardware?

So, why are TV sales in decline? It could be for a very simple reason, and that is the average household has a large-enough TV with enough bells and whistles that they see no reason to upgrade. If you already own a 55-inch or 60-inch 1080p set with “smart” functions ( and the all-important Netflix streaming), then the speed of your Internet connection is much more important than adding another 5 inches in screen size or quadrupling your screen resolution.

There’s a corollary in the world of tablets, where sales and shipments are also slowing down much faster than analysts predicted. There are any number of reasons why, but the two most likely culprits are the shift in preferences for larger smartphone screens (“phablets”) and the fact that people just hang onto tablets longer (at least, until their batteries die), often passing them down to children or off to relatives when a new model is purchased.

This shift to 4K and Ultra HD resolution is also impacting the commercial AV industry, which is heading for some serious interfacing issues. More and more of the large displays that will be installed will have Ultra HD resolution. And that will create a major headache for integrators, as the predominant interface for pro AV is still HDMI 1.4, even though version 2.0 was announced two years ago.

None of this is good news for the projector manufacturers, who are struggling to defend their turf from the large, cheap LCD displays. Unlike panel manufacturers, projector brands are moving slowly to adopt 4K resolution, which isn’t surprising because of the cost involved to tool up and manufacture microdisplays with 4K resolution and the much smaller market for projectors.

As for the naysayers who still think 4K is a fad, I would just advise them to wake up and smell the coffee. The world of consumer electronics absolutely drives the world of commercial AV – what’s happening over there is going to happen here, and that means you as an integrator will be installing more and more displays with UHD resolution; from desktop monitors and TVs to single-panel and tiled wall-mounted displays.

Count on it!

 

 

 

Has Sony Finally Seen The Light?

Sony’s ongoing financial woes have been well-documented by this writer over the past few years. Gone are the days when the Tokyo-based electronics giant could invent and own all parts of a media format, like the Walkman and Betacam.

It’s exceedingly difficult to make any money selling hardware to consumers these days, as fellow CE giants Panasonic, Toshiba, and Hitachi have all found out. And one of the biggest loss leaders is the Bravia television business, thanks to cutthroat competition from Samsung and LG, and now Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL.

Sony’s late entry into the LCD television marketplace a little over 10 years ago didn’t help. Back then, the company had OEM deals for LCD and plasma TVs with Pioneer and the aforementioned LG, along with a joint venture with Samsung to manufacture LCD televisions (S-LCD). But even with the Sony brand and decent market share, profits were nowhere to be found.

As losses piled up in the television unit, more red ink started flowing from Sony’s VAIO computer operations (since sold off to Lenovo). And in a real head-scratcher, Sony bought out its share of a mobile phone joint venture from Ericsson, only to see that miscalculation produce even more financial misery than the TV group ever did.

Now, chairman Kazuo Hirai has made it official: Sony will no longer chase higher sales in smartphones, where its Experia models just can’t compete with Samsung and Apple. And Sony won’t get any traction in the world’s largest mobile phone market, China, where home-grown brands like Huawei play a dominant role.

Are the days of

Are the days of “Make Believe” are over at Sony?

Significantly, Hirai also said that he would not rule out an exit strategy for both smartphones and televisions. (Sony’s TV operations were recently spun off as a separate operating unit so their losses can be clearly identified from the rest of the company.) Sony is on track to post a $1.5B loss for the current fiscal year that ends March 31, continuing a string of down years. Layoffs have continued company-wide and about 1200 more employees will be let go from the mobile division this year.

Despite the gloomy news, Sony’s ace in the hole is a burgeoning entertainment division. Sony Pictures, Sony Pictures Television, Sony Music, and PlayStation – taken together – are profitable operations. More than one institutional investor has called for Sony to exit the hardware business altogether and concentrate on content and software, which is where the money is nowadays.

But Sony has such a strong and rich legacy in consumer electronics that they can’t bring themselves to let go of the past, even after posting year upon year of record losses attributable to that same CE hardware. It’s gotten so bad that the company even announced last year that they would not pay a stock dividend for the first time in 50+ years. (Boy, did THAT news wake everyone up!)

In a recent Reuters story, Hirai stated that Sony would target a return on equity of more than 10% by 2018, aiming for an operating profit of $4.2 billion for fiscal 2017. That would be quite a turnaround, given Sony’s performance over the past five years. And it won’t be possible unless the company kisses the TV and phone businesses goodbye, once and for all.

Did Sony learn the lesson of Panasonic, who bit the bullet and shut down their plasma TV manufacturing business cold turkey in 2013, returning to profitability last year? (Panasonic is on track to make about a $2 billion profit for FY 2014.)

Panasonic also shut down other underperforming business units and shifted its focus to commercial products, and it would not surprise me to see them walk away from consumer TVs altogether in the next year or so as their market share is so small.

What about Sony’s Japanese competitors? Hitachi read the tea leaves several years ago and gave up on TVs altogether, while Toshiba is retrenching to the Japanese market. Sharp continues to struggle in the television business as its once-dominant 21% worldwide market share in TV shipments (2006) has dwindled to about 3% and a $250 million loss is staring them in the face for FY 2014.

It seems like everyone but Sony figured out the way back to profitability several years ago. Now, has Sony wised up? Have they finally seen the light?

Time will tell…