Posts Tagged ‘3D’

3CD: Well, that was fun. I’m bored. What’s next?

I stopped in at my local Best Buy this past Saturday (10/30) to look for an inexpensive upscaling DVD player (yeah, I know that’s redundant) for my in-laws.

While I was there, I wandered around the store to see what was being showcased in the store demos. 3D, which was a big thing back in April, had clearly fizzled out – at least, as far as store personnel were concerned.

Of four possible 3D demo stations, only one had any glasses – the Sony Bravia 3D demo in the Magnolia section. A nearby Panasonic 3D demo had clips from Avatar rolling in 3D on a plasma TV, but not a pair of glasses to be found.

At the entrance to the Magnolia store was a Samsung 55-inch LCD 3D demo. Trouble was, the channel was set to a 2D telecast of the Michigan State – Iowa college football game and no 3D glasses were anywhere to be seen.

Behind the service counter in the regular TV section was yet another 3D demo, this time featuring the 46-inch UN46C7000 Samsung LCD TV. And just like my last visit, the TV was showing Monsters vs. Aliens in 2D, again sans 3D glasses.

A possible fifth demo at the end of one of the aisles used to feature Panasonic’s 50VT20 plasma, but it had been taken down. This was the only demo that had any working 3D glasses a few months back.

So, what was all the  buzz about at BB this time? Why, Sony Internet TV, of course!

If you think TV remotes are complicated, wait until you try THIS keyboard!

Yep, it’s time to get out on the Internet and dig for content, using Google’s search engine and Sony’s incredibly small and dense keyboard. I didn’t see a single person attempt to use it during my 30 minute visit to the store.

In addition to Sony’s support for Google TV, Logitech has a new set-top box you can connect to the Ethernet port on your existing TV – or to the HDMI input.

Sony also showed a new “Internet TV Blu-ray Disc Player” that incorporates the Google interface. It’s the silvery box in the lower middle part of the photo, and encourages you to “take advantage of Full HD 1080p Blu-ray Disc Capabilities.” (???) No mention of 3D anywhere in the exhibit, so there may be a ‘separation of church and state’ thing going on as far as Sony is concerned.

Oh, and that inexpensive upscaling DVD player? I wound up going down the street to 6th Avenue Electronics and scoring a Panasonic DVD-S58PP-K with HDMI output and CEC for $50. Can’t beat that with a stick.

Blu-ray: Those hotcakes must be getting cold

Warner Brothers Entertainment recently expanded its DVD2Blu promotion to include any DVD of any movie or TV program – not just DVD releases of Warner titles.

For those readers who are not familiar with the program, DVD2Blu allowed anyone to trade in older WB movie titles on DVD and get a credit towards the purchase of a new Blu-ray version. The upgraded BD would cost about $8, including shipping.

Now, WB has expanded their program and will accept any professionally-produced DVD – movies, TV shows, sports, etc – towards the purchase of a WB Blu-ray movie or WB Television collection, with prices starting as low as $4.95. According to the ad, which is shown below and can be accessed at http://www.dvd2blu.com/ there are over 100 BD titles to choose from. Order more than $35 worth, and WB will throw in free shipping.

For Blu-ray fans, this is quite a promotion. You can send in DVDs you picked up at discount bins, discarded from libraries, or were given for Christmas presents. All you have to do is mail in the disc (not the packaging) and pay the discounted price, plus shipping (except where noted) to get new BDs for your collection.

From here, it seems like a desperate move by WB to thin out a backlog of BD titles that aren’t moving. Earlier this week, I wrote about the latest Digital Entertainment Group report that showed digital distribution of content is zooming ahead of physical distribution. The report also mentioned that tens of millions of BDs have been shipped to retail. Apparently tens of millions of BDs are still sitting at retail, too.

The costs of administering such a mail-in program aren’t cheap, either. All of the DVDs will have be disposed of, and there are the usual associated shipping and handling costs to deal with.

This move by WB is significant because they are one of the largest distributors of packaged media, along with Disney, who has yet to announce any type of redemption or discount program for their BD titles.

I recall a conversation with a Disney executive a few years back at the HPA Technology Retreat. His comment cut to the chase: “If the industry wants Blu-ray to be successful, they should just stop pressing regular DVDs and make Blu-ray the only optical disc format. That would do the trick!”

Of course, at the time, BD players were in the neighborhood of $500 – $700 dollars and largely ignored by the general public, who gravitated towards cheaper upscaling DVD players instead.

Times have changed. Nowadays, BD players can be had for as little as $80, and even 3D models are plummeting in  price – at least one is selling for less than $200, and a couple more are approaching that price point.

Given the slow but steady decline in overall sales of packaged media (DVD, BD, and the few VHS tapes that are still in circulation)  – down 8% this year over last – it’s time for Hollywood to ‘sink or swim’ by committing to the BD format and start making plans for the sunset of RL DVDs. Even Netflix has announced it will exit the DVD distribution business in the next five years and concentrate on its ‘bread-and-butter’ streaming offerings.

Wonder when the next round of BD fire sales will start?

The 3D Fire Sales have Begun

PriceSCAN has just released its latest 3D Blu-ray Player Index, and it’s a doozy.

The 3D BD Player Index is a composite of all models currently at retail, and the average price for those models has dropped by 26% in six months, with a 10.6% drop in just the past week.

PriceSCAN listed Sony’s BDP-S570 as a good example of aggressive discounting. This player, which required a firmware upgrade to support 3D playback, has fallen from a retail price of $250 to $170 since late February.

From my own experience, I was able to score Samsung’s BD-C6900 3D BD player for just $244 plus shipping from Amazon in early September. Its original list price was closer to $400 when unveiled shortly after CES.

These rapid drops in retail prices reflect the low level of enthusiasm for 3D TV that has been evidenced to date. In an earlier post, I referenced an NPD Group study that showed only 11% of respondents in a recent poll had any plans to buy a 3D TV in the near future, citing concerns about technology, cost issues, the lack of content, and the need to wear expensive, proprietary glasses.

Can prices on BD players and TVs drop low enough to overcome the other objections? Probably not, as the lack of content is still a big problem. There needs to be bucketloads of 3D content available to drive sales, and right now, we’re talking about glassfuls.

If you are thinking about taking the dive into 3D, you’d be best off sitting on your hands for a few more weeks. I have a feeling we’re going to see even deeper discounts on BD players and TVs, probably on the order of 30 – 40% by the time January rolls around.

Think I’m nuts? I just Googled retail prices for the BD-C6900, and it’s now down to $214 (plus shipping) at Amazon, Tiger Direct, PC Richard, Vann’s, and ABT.  (Buyer’s remorse alert – I bought one too soon!!)

3D: Amazed, but Not Interested

A recent study by the NPD Group (3D 3600 Monitor) states that “…20 percent of consumers reported being “amazed” by the 3D demos in stores, versus only 15 percent who felt that way about their experience in the (3D movie) theater.”

Wow. Only twenty percent were ‘amazed?’? That’s not very impressive for a new technology that has been marketed like crazy for the past ten months, and on which most manufacturers are hanging their hopes for a robust holiday TV selling season.

The report goes on to state that “…42 percent of consumers surveyed were at least somewhat interested in watching 3D movies at home, but only 11 percent intend to purchase a 3D television.” More discouraging news, as you’d reasonably expect interest in 3D TV to be peaking now after ESPN’s 3D World Cup coverage and a slew of 3D theatrical releases that earned big bucks at the box office.

Oh, wait: I forgot – Blu-ray releases of most of 2010’s box office 3D movie hits are already tied up in exclusive TV manufacturer bundles for the foreseeable future. It’s that ‘availability of 3D content’ thing again – there’s just not enough of it out there for most consumers to justify the purchase of a new 3D TV right now.

Well, THAT gets old in a hurry!

NPD’s report also showed that consumers have objections about cost, the need to wear glasses, the relatively short time that 3D technology has been available, and whether or not all technical issues with 3D TV viewing have been addressed (whatever they are).

Of those intending to buy a 3D TV, “…more than half say that 3D enhances the viewing experience, and 42 percent agree with the statement that 3D is the future.” So, about 6% of all 1,100 respondents said that 3D enhances the viewing experience. That’s a VERY low number. (What puzzles me is that only about half of the people intending to buy a 3D TV agreed with that statement. Why buy a 3D TV in the first place, if you don’t think it is an enhancement?)

It’s becoming apparent to me that two things are really holding back 3D TV. The first is cost. There are simply too many great deals on conventional (2D) HDTVs out there, and plain vanilla HDTV (never thought I’d say that) programming is available in abundance. For folks that are upgrading older TVs, the jump to HD is big enough for now. 3D can wait. Prices need to drop and drop fast on 3D-ready sets, which can just replace existing 2D-only models.

The second problem is all of the exclusive Blu-ray bundle deals. Between the TV manufacturers who cooked up these schemes and studios who agreed to go along, they’ve managed to shoot themselves in both feet quite nicely. Marketing 101 teaches you that you don’t make a product hard to find or expensive if you expect to sell a lot of it. (Unless it’s an upscale brand with a solid reputation, like Ferrari or Tiffany.)

We’re closing in on Black Friday and a major selling season for TVs, and right now, it looks like most consumers will be ‘sitting it out’ this year with 3D.  (Hey, TV sales are tough all over. 6th Avenue Electronics can’t even get rid of Panasonic 2D 50-inch 720p plasma TVs for $397, and that deal has been running for almost a month!)

3D: Expect a Long Slog

3D: Expect a Long Slog

It took nearly seven years before HDTV really took off. So how can we expect 3D to launch in less time?

There’s been a lot of discussion lately in the trade and consumer press that 3D is at danger of falling back into a novelty entertainment category.

Several prominent movie directors (among them J. J. Abrams) have come out against the format. Christopher Nolan (Inception) said it was too dark. And sloppy 2D-to-3D conversions, such as Clash of the Titans, may scare some people away from the format.

There’s also anecdotal evidence that the initial fascination that movie audiences had with 3D is starting to wear off. The premium for a 3D ticket can be anywhere from $3 to $5, depending on the theater chain and location. And experiences like Titans will make consumers gun-shy about spending 25% to 40% more for a 3D presentation.

But that’s a movie theater issue. What CE manufacturers want is for 3D to take off like HDTV did, back in the late 1990s.

The only problem with that thinking is that HDTV did not take off in the late 1990s at all! As a matter of fact, it moved at a glacial pace for quite a few years.

I installed my first HDTV (Princeton Graphics AF3.0HD) in the fall of 1999, and connected it to a Panasonic TU-DST51W set-top box and antenna to watch a smattering of HD movies on Saturday nights (ABC) and a few sitcoms and hour-long dramas (CBS), along with Monday Night Football games (ABC again).

My TV market (Philadelphia) didn’t have a full slate of HD content available on the top four networks until 2003, five years after the first HDTV stations lit up. Remember NBC’s experimental HD coverage of the Winter Olympics in February of 2002? Remember the Fox network’s 480i ‘high-resolution digital TV?’ in 2000 and 2001?

The fact is; HDTV set sales didn’t hit their stride until the third and fourth quarters of 2005. That’s when the price wars began in earnest and the HD DVD – Blu-ray war was just starting up.  (Coincidentally or not, 2005 was also the high-water mark for DVD sales.)

Consider that HDTV turned the idea of TV viewing upside down. Gone was analog TV, replaced by digital bits and bytes. Gone too were big, bulky cathode-ray tubes, replaced by matrices of tiny pixels actuated by LCD and plasma technology.

Good-bye, VHS tapes – DVDs were well on their way to killing off this format by the start of 2005. And of course we were no longer limited to just 480 lines of picture resolution, but could enjoy programs with 1280×720 and 1920×1080 pixels of picture detail…win widescreen, no less!

Think about it. TV was literally re-invented from 1998 to 2005. And in 2009, we pulled the plug completely and analog TV broadcasts, completing the switch. But that was 11 years after the process started.

For most viewers, 3D is still an expensive novelty

So…manufacturers want people to buy into 3D. Currently, there are a limited number of 3DTV sets for sale, and they’re not as cheap as 2D sets. And there’s not much 3D content available on Blu-ray to watch right now. You can count the number of 3D TV networks on the fingers of one hand.

And the glasses! Depending on which model 3DTV you watch, you may see ghost images. Or, the picture may get darker as you tilt your head. (You may even get a headache after a few minutes.) And the glasses are expensive, and you need a separate pair for every viewer.

Did I mention that most 3D glasses will not work with other brands of 3D TVs? Hey, you could make anyone’s HDTV set-top box work with anyone’s DTV set. Ditto DVD players and Blu-ray players, and set-top boxes. But not 3D glasses.

It also doesn’t help that we’re in a nasty recession. People are reluctant to spend money now, especially with close to 10% unemployment.  So 3DTV winds up being an exotic luxury for now.

I return to my main point, and that is the long adoption curve I anticipate for 3D. The price premium is one drawback, and the other is the fact that millions of U.S. homes just bought one or more new HDTVs within the past three years.

Depending on whose numbers you believe, we are at or around 50% penetration for HDTV, meaning 50% of all homes have at least one HDTV set. I can guarantee that more than half of those sets were purchased after Q3 of 2005. So, where’s the impetus to buy a new 3DTV?

The good thing about a long adoption curve: Within two years, all models of HDTV sets 50 inches and larger will have the capability to play back 3D programming. (They’ll all have network connections too, but that’s another story.) So it won’t matter which set you buy – you’ll have the 3D playback built-in.

The same thing will happen with Blu-ray players and set-top boxes. They’ll be able to process 3D content as easily as 2D content. So you won’t have to buy an expensive special model just to watch 3D Blu-ray discs.

How long a curve are we looking at? I’d say about five years. By then, broadband speeds will have picked up considerably and we’ll be able to access 3D content through Internet TV channels, as well as from optical disc and video-on-demand.

Content drives demand, and there just isn’t enough of it in 3D right now. By 2015, the situation will have changed dramatically and we’ll have 3D movies, games, and TV programs coming out the wazoo.

Until then, expect 3D to penetrate the TV market slowly, in fits and starts…just like HDTV did.