THE FRONT LINE: OCTOBER 1, 2005
HD-DVD vs. BLU-RAY: Should You Even Care?
Toshiba has delayed the rollout of HD-DVD to 2006; about the same time that Blu-Ray will make its debut. Will both HD disc formats be met with applause, or a big yawn?
We've been hearing quite a bit about both high-definition DVD formats for some time now. As a matter of record, Toshiba and Panasonic both made detailed presentations on their competing playback formats during the 2004 Home Theater Cruise, which was almost a year ago — an eternity in today's consumer electronics world.
In the interim, there have been some interesting announcements, some of which have been detailed on this Web site. Verbatim has begun production of 8.5 GB dual-layer (DL) red laser DVD-R discs. More HD titles are appearing in the Windows Media format, mastered to standard red laser discs.
Samsung recently announced they might come out with a player than can handle both red laser and blue laser DVDs, while JVC rolled out the SRDVD-100U, a red laser HD DVD recorder/player that supports WM9/10 and MPEG-2.
Proving there are new tricks left in an old dog, New Medium Enterprises showed 20 GB and 40 GB capacity red laser DVDs last May to investors by demonstrating 1080i and progressive-scan (presumably 720p) video clips. And there have been other companies announcing MPEG-4 compression of HD for playback on red laser media.
In this editor's opinion, both Toshiba and the Blu-Ray camp blew it. They both should have had product on the market by now. The longer they wait, the tougher it will be and the longer it will take for either format to be successful. Consider that —
- Cable and satellite program distributors and system operators are rolling out high definition video-on-demand at incrementally faster rates
- Verizon is launching its new high-speed Video over Internet Protocol (VoIP) service in several markets using broadband fiber optic delivery, and will offer HD VOD
- Penetration of true HDTV sets is still quite low as a percentage of the population
- Many "big box store" consumers who have purchased 480p DVD players and widescreen EDTV and HDTV sets think 480p widescreen DVD quality is good enough for them and see no need to upgrade
- DVD players with 720p and 1080i output and good image quality continue to drop in price
In addition to the repeated delays in bringing either product to market, there have been announcements that HDMI connectors may be the only output interfaces available from either player. That's no big deal if you haven't bought a new HDTV yet, but how about all of the folks who have sets with analog component inputs?
It's clear that Hollywood has a great deal of interest in secure delivery and playback of HD movies, and there are so many encryption schemes and secure interfaces being discussed for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray that you might feel you are trying to break into Fort Knox just to watch Star Wars or episodes of CSI and Lost.
And what about solid-state memory? Apple's iPod has been a phenomenal success, so much that a new generation of consumers is growing up not caring at all if their entertainment comes over the airwaves, through a cable, or from a satellite dish. They just want a player they can take anyplace to listen to music and eventually watch videos.
Is the iPod a practical model for the future of HD program delivery? Do we really need a whole new generation of discs to rent and return, or buy and leave shrink-wrapped on the shelves for months until we get around to viewing them? Does it make more sense to download a movie or other HD programming to a flash drive?
All are good questions; none are easy to answer. There are those who value ownership of video and audio discs and want to build collections of movies and music. There are others who simply want to rent a movie and watch it once, and who could care less if they ever own that movie.
We know some things for certain. First, prices for hard drives and portable RAM "sticks" will continue to plummet. As this is being written, 6 GB flash memory cards are available on the Web for just under $300, with 1 GB drives at around $100.
Figure that by January, those 6 GB cards will be down to $150, and 8 GB (and perhaps 10 GB) media will be widely available. Using a rough rule of thumb, 9 GB is needed to store one hour of MPEG-2 HD video (720p or 1080i). MPEG-4 and Windows Media compression may allow for more capacity.
So, the day is not far off where we will be able to load a 2-hour HD movie onto a small flash card and play it back on a wide variety of devices; handheld or otherwise. Navigation through chapters will be much faster than DVD, and the media will be robust and immune to mechanical shocks, ultraviolet light, and dust - all things which can cause big problems for disc playback formats.
Secondly, interest in HD video-on-demand will continue to grow as the cable companies and Baby Bells slug it out and more homes have access to broadband connections. For many viewers, the appeal of VOD is obvious — no trips to the local Hollywood Video or Blockbuster store, no need to order discs from NetFlix and mail them back at the end of the month.
Hollywood loves any solution that provides increased security even more than another, and VOD might be the ultimate winner here. There's no physical media to buy or rent, just a collection of bits downloaded to a set-top box that evaporate after you have viewed them.
But the biggest obstacle to overcome is the looming format war between the two HD disc camps. Consumers have shown again and again they have no stomach for such squabbles, which means that other than die-hard videophiles, most would-be customers for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players and recorded media will just sit on the sidelines until the shooting is over and all the dust clears.
Given how fast entrepreneurial companies work these days, there could be dozens of affordable red-laser or RAM drive-based HD playback solutions available by the time a HD disc format war is settled (and you know full well that free markets settle format wars, not manufacturers, alliances, working groups, or committees!).
Keep your eyes open at CES 2006 for further developments, particularly with red laser HD recordable media and players. You could be very surprised...
