What Schemes May Come

FEATURE

WHAT SCHEMES MAY COME
S&VC Looks Into
the (Video) Crystal Ball

by Peter H. Putman, CTS

Sometimes, one can get so busy that they lose all track of time! Such was the case for the turn of the new year, which just flew by here. I had originally intended to write this column for the January 200 issue, but better late than never.

Over the past few years, we've discussed a variety of display and interfacing technologies. Now, I'd like to have some fun and make a few predictions about where the various display and interfacing markets are headed - what trends you'll see, what products to look for, and what pitfalls may lay ahead.

Projectors: Of all the changes that have occurred in the installation marketplace, none have been as overwhelming as the "flood" of flat-matrix display technologies - transmissive LCDs, reflective LCDs, digital light processing, and plasma display panels. These new imaging technologies have simply overwhelmed established products such as CRT projectors and CRT-engined videowalls.

And the flood is only going to continue. Many desktop LCD projectors have gotten so powerful and feature-rich that they are being specified for installations in all kinds of public and private venues. It's easy to see why - you can take your pick of 12-18 pound, 1000+ lumen boxes that feature XGA (1024x768) resolution, digital keystone correction, intelligent video/RGB scaling and support for component video formats like YCbCr and YPbPr.

Some models are now coming out with SXGA resolution, like NEC's GT2000, JVC's DLA-G15/G20 series and Epson's PowerLite 9000i. I just tested the Epson unit, and it does a very good job handling a variety of signal formats, including some esoteric ones like 720p and 1080i HDTV, plus 1600x1200 workstation graphics.

There are other XGA desktop models like Sony's PX30, NEC's MT1045, and Sharp's Notevision 6 that can also "crank" out the lumens. All three are rated at 2000 ANSI, which (to put things in perspective) is about 10 times as bright as the typical 8" CRT projector of two years ago.

These models - plus others, including the heavier Sanyo PLC-EF10N, Sony VPL-FE100, Barco BG-6400DLC and Proxima 9410 - are becoming the projectors of choice for conference room and classroom installations. Unless the customer has a specific request for CRT imaging, LCDs are ruling the roost and tubes are "outta here."

The emphasis on weight loss has also been evident with digital light processing (DLP) technology, led by NEC's "Thunder"- engined, 90-pound XT5000 projector and Christie Digital's Vista-X series projectors. These offerings resemble CRT projectors in size and weight, but that's where the similarity ends.

In addition to high-quality image scaling and 3:2 pulldown detection, these 3-chip DLP designs are rated in the 4000 to 5000 lumen range. That's more than "more than enough" brightness for the average conference room/boardroom installation - probably five times more.

But the DLP imaging engines will have to get smaller still, if they are to keep up with advances in LCD imaging. I've already seen at least one ultraportable LCD projector installed in a small conference room. How long before the portable and desktop categories simply merge together, and we get a "do-it-all" XGA-resolution projector weighing 10 pounds with 2000+ ANSI lumens? It's coming!

Look for manufacturers to consolidate their lines somewhat; offering ultra-small, ultra-light projectors for portable use, and desktop/installation models in the 8 to 12 pound range. Look in turn for the current 25- to 50-pound desktop/installation projectors to shed more weight and mass, as they cannibalize the market dominated by 100 lb+ large-venue machines.

Resolution wars will continue. We'll probably see 1600x1200 transmissive LCD imaging later this year from Sony or Epson. There have been rumors that Texas Instruments may show a 1920x1080 DMD chip, but that would likely be a prototype and not a production unit. What you will see is a higher-resolution D-ILA (digital image light amplifier) panel from JVC; one with 2048 x 1536 pixels for high-brightness, high-resolution installation projectors.

Here's another reason to keep your eye on JVC: Since their recent consolidation of the Hughes-JVC operations, JVC has brought a few interesting products to market - but none so interesting as the D'Ahlia home theater rear-projection TV. The imaging device is a single 1.5" reflective digital image light amplifier with color filters imbedded in its surface, and a pixel resolution of 1280x1028 (non-square).

The significance of the D-Ahlia is that it eliminates color wheels and three-panel RGB color imaging. That, in turn, translates into a very compact light engine with no moving parts - only a cooling fan. I predict that JVC will bring out both an ultraportable and a compact desktop/installation projector using this self-contained "holographic" D-ILA sometime this year. You can be sure that other manufacturers will want to private-label it!

Interfacing: With the advent of HDTV, it's not longer a question of whether a given projector or monitor supports component video formats - it must. Almost every new projector/monitor I test is compatible with at least one or more of the new DTV formats, including 480 progressive, 720 progressive, and 1080 interlaced.

The booming DVD marketplace has also had an impact, as most new projectors and monitors also support the YCbCr component format. Many of these displays are equipped with both 15-pin VGA-style jacks and 5 BNC jacks, and a few are even ready to support digital formats like PanelLink, SDI, HD SDI, and even FireWire (IEEE 1394).

That has also translated into higher picture scan rates, which has forced a demand for better image scaling. But there's been a monkey wrench thrown in the works: Signal format compatibility problems.

At least one current-model 42" plasma panel will not correctly recognize a decoded, analog 720p or 1080i HD signal in the RGBS/RGBHV format. Several LCD projectors also fall into this trap, interpreting any RGBS/RGBHV input strictly as a 4:3 computer image. That's a direct influence of the Asian consumer marketplace.

While this means more business for companies like Extron, InLine, and Altinex, it presents a major pain in the neck for systems integrators. But help is on the way! Look for more and more products to adopt one of the pure digital interfaces, which means less connectors and less problems with standards.

As HDTV continues to expand its reach, decoders will come to market with SDI output (a single BNC jack carries all data), simplifying cable runs. You won't see a mass shift to pure digital video/computer interfaces this year, or even next. But you will see a slow movement in that direction. Look for combination serial/analog interfaces to start coming to market this year.

Also keep your eyes out for an avalanche of video scalars, as "pure" line multipliers slowly fade away. Flat-matrix devices have their own unique signal and sync requirements, which are rarely satisfied by simple line-multiplying. There will be an increased demand for glitch-free switching between RGB and video signal sources on installation projectors and monitors - a task that only video scalars can pull off.

Prices will continue to drop on scalars, just as they did with line doublers. (One of the best line doublers made - DVDO's iScan Plus - sells for just $700.) Expect to see half a dozen new models at INFOCOMM this year - perhaps more, with all of 'em capable of supporting every possible video, plasma, computer, and HD format invented.

Monitors: If you think the projector market has been turned upside-down, wait 'till you see what's coming down the pike for monitors! Major manufacturers have been gearing up plants in Asia for the past two years to produce both large-screen LCD displays (25" and larger) and plasma displays (25" to 50").

CRTs are rapidly falling from grace as NEC, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, Fujitsu, Sharp, Philips, LG, Samsung and others are going thin, and their targets are not only the traditional multimedia monitor market, but ultimately the consumer television market.

Price are still high, but they are going to come down faster than you think. It wasn't too many years ago that a 10" 640x480 LCD monitor would set you back about $7,000. Now, you can buy 20" models with XGA resolution for less than half that amount - and they're digital-ready, to boot. Early plasma monitors were retailing for well over $15,000 - now, there are 42" models coming out at under $10,000.The interesting battle will be between TFT LCD and gas-plasma panel technology in the 25" to 32" market. Both are capable of producing very bright, contrasty images under normal room lighting, and neither one requires much of a footprint. Which will be the people's choice? Once again, outboard scalars will save the day with the display of analog video sources, but the direct digital inputs will handle everything else including DTV/HDTV.

Look for several new large (over 20") video/data monitors to be introduced in the coming year with XGA and SXGA resolution. There will be a pile of plasma panels to sort through as well - look for big improvements in video scaling and expanded (10-bit and maybe even 12-bit) digital signal sampling, two big problems with previous plasma offerings.

Rear-projection monitors aren't immune to the LCD/DLP onslaught. If you attend the INFOCOMM® Projection Shoot-Out® this year in Anaheim, my prediction is that a majority of the monitors shown will use some sort of flat-matrix imaging, and many of them will be equipped with single-chip DLP and three-panel LCD engines.

The videowall market continues to move slowly away from CRTs, with single-chip DMDs being the "hot" imaging engine. You'll see more of them this year, and there may even be a single-chip 1280x1024 DLP model on exhibit at INFOCOMM. TFT LCDs aren't as strong in this market as DMD chips, and that's not likely to change anytime soon.

JVC's holographic D-ILA is also a strong candidate for a 16:9 projection cube, a product we have yet to see come to market. Ditto Sharp's continuous grain silicon (CGS) LCD panels, which provide 1280x1280 (non-square) resolution in a 16:9 package. Sony's new 1365x768 polysilicon LCD panels would also be a natural for a 16:9 rear-projection monitor - can one be far off? Don't bet against it.

Miscellany: Although tube-base technology is rapidly taking a back seat, other innovations are not. There's plenty of interest in laser imaging, with at least one company having developed a laser-driven CRT that is capable of several thousand lumens of light energy. (Think of a 9" three-gun CRT chassis on steroids!) Lasers are still problematic to work with, but hold a great deal of promise for large-venue applications simply because they have tremendous depth of field, and don't require lenses.

Silicon Light Machine's grating light valve is also a technology to watch. This pixel-less light shutter can support infinite resolutions and has already been tested with 2K and higher resolution. It's not likely to appear in the Shoot-Out, but watch for announcements and demos over the coming year.

One of the smallest imaging components - the lowly light-emitting diode, or LED - is making a real impact in the super-large venue display area. Stadiums, arenas, malls, and other large public venues are putting in high-brightness displays with millions of LEDs as the pixel-forming elements. Sony and SACO Smartvision are active in this area, and are targeting older technologies like Jumbotron and even videowalls.

Finally, look for more and more crossover between products for the consumer and professional audio-visual markets. Sony's VPL-VW10HT home theater projector would be perfect in boardroom installations that want HDTV compatibility. NEC's and Panasonic's 42" plasma panels have an input connector jack field that has "consumer" stamped all over it with RCA and 15-pin VGA jacks. Single-chip DLP and three-chip SVGA LCD projectors are already being offered to consumers for home theater and personal data projection. Even Fujitsu's early 42" plasma panels are now on sale for under $7,000 at discount retailer Costco.

That's enough forecasting! Better shut off my single-panel, 2356 x 1428 pixel holographic, 12-bit grating crystal ball, and get back to work...

Copyright © 2000 Peter H. Putman / Primedia Intertec
This article appears in the April 2000 issue of Sound and Video Contractor.


						FEATURE
					WHAT SCHEMES MAY COME S&VC Looks Into the (Video) Crystal Ball


					by Peter H. Putman, CTS Sometimes, one can get so busy that they lose all track of time! Such was the case for the turn of the new year, which just flew by here. I had originally intended to write this column for the January 200 issue, but better late than never. Over the past few years, we've discussed a variety of display and interfacing technologies. Now, I'd like to have some fun and make a few predictions about where the various display and interfacing markets are headed - what trends you'll see, what products to look for, and what pitfalls may lay ahead. Projectors: Of all the changes that have occurred in the installation marketplace, none have been as overwhelming as the "flood" of flat-matrix display technologies - transmissive LCDs, reflective LCDs, digital light processing, and plasma display panels. These new imaging technologies have simply overwhelmed established products such as CRT projectors and CRT-engined videowalls. And the flood is only going to continue. Many desktop LCD projectors have gotten so powerful and feature-rich that they are being specified for installations in all kinds of public and private venues. It's easy to see why - you can take your pick of 12-18 pound, 1000+ lumen boxes that feature XGA (1024x768) resolution, digital keystone correction, intelligent video/RGB scaling and support for component video formats like YCbCr and YPbPr. Some models are now coming out with SXGA resolution, like NEC's GT2000, JVC's DLA-G15/G20 series and Epson's PowerLite 9000i. I just tested the Epson unit, and it does a very good job handling a variety of signal formats, including some esoteric ones like 720p and 1080i HDTV, plus 1600x1200 workstation graphics. There are other XGA desktop models like Sony's PX30, NEC's MT1045, and Sharp's Notevision 6 that can also "crank" out the lumens. All three are rated at 2000 ANSI, which (to put things in perspective) is about 10 times as bright as the typical 8" CRT projector of two years ago. These models - plus others, including the heavier Sanyo PLC-EF10N, Sony VPL-FE100, Barco BG-6400DLC and Proxima 9410 - are becoming the projectors of choice for conference room and classroom installations. Unless the customer has a specific request for CRT imaging, LCDs are ruling the roost and tubes are "outta here." The emphasis on weight loss has also been evident with digital light processing (DLP) technology, led by NEC's "Thunder"- engined, 90-pound XT5000 projector and Christie Digital's Vista-X series projectors. These offerings resemble CRT projectors in size and weight, but that's where the similarity ends. In addition to high-quality image scaling and 3:2 pulldown detection, these 3-chip DLP designs are rated in the 4000 to 5000 lumen range. That's more than "more than enough" brightness for the average conference room/boardroom installation - probably five times more. But the DLP imaging engines will have to get smaller still, if they are to keep up with advances in LCD imaging. I've already seen at least one ultraportable LCD projector installed in a small conference room. How long before the portable and desktop categories simply merge together, and we get a "do-it-all" XGA-resolution projector weighing 10 pounds with 2000+ ANSI lumens? It's coming! Look for manufacturers to consolidate their lines somewhat; offering ultra-small, ultra-light projectors for portable use, and desktop/installation models in the 8 to 12 pound range. Look in turn for the current 25- to 50-pound desktop/installation projectors to shed more weight and mass, as they cannibalize the market dominated by 100 lb+ large-venue machines. Resolution wars will continue. We'll probably see 1600x1200 transmissive LCD imaging later this year from Sony or Epson. There have been rumors that Texas Instruments may show a 1920x1080 DMD chip, but that would likely be a prototype and not a production unit. What you will see is a higher-resolution D-ILA (digital image light amplifier) panel from JVC; one with 2048 x 1536 pixels for high-brightness, high-resolution installation projectors. Here's another reason to keep your eye on JVC: Since their recent consolidation of the Hughes-JVC operations, JVC has brought a few interesting products to market - but none so interesting as the D'Ahlia home theater rear-projection TV. The imaging device is a single 1.5" reflective digital image light amplifier with color filters imbedded in its surface, and a pixel resolution of 1280x1028 (non-square). The significance of the D-Ahlia is that it eliminates color wheels and three-panel RGB color imaging. That, in turn, translates into a very compact light engine with no moving parts - only a cooling fan. I predict that JVC will bring out both an ultraportable and a compact desktop/installation projector using this self-contained "holographic" D-ILA sometime this year. You can be sure that other manufacturers will want to private-label it! Interfacing: With the advent of HDTV, it's not longer a question of whether a given projector or monitor supports component video formats - it must. Almost every new projector/monitor I test is compatible with at least one or more of the new DTV formats, including 480 progressive, 720 progressive, and 1080 interlaced. The booming DVD marketplace has also had an impact, as most new projectors and monitors also support the YCbCr component format. Many of these displays are equipped with both 15-pin VGA-style jacks and 5 BNC jacks, and a few are even ready to support digital formats like PanelLink, SDI, HD SDI, and even FireWire (IEEE 1394). That has also translated into higher picture scan rates, which has forced a demand for better image scaling. But there's been a monkey wrench thrown in the works: Signal format compatibility problems. At least one current-model 42" plasma panel will not correctly recognize a decoded, analog 720p or 1080i HD signal in the RGBS/RGBHV format. Several LCD projectors also fall into this trap, interpreting any RGBS/RGBHV input strictly as a 4:3 computer image. That's a direct influence of the Asian consumer marketplace. While this means more business for companies like Extron, InLine, and Altinex, it presents a major pain in the neck for systems integrators. But help is on the way! Look for more and more products to adopt one of the pure digital interfaces, which means less connectors and less problems with standards. As HDTV continues to expand its reach, decoders will come to market with SDI output (a single BNC jack carries all data), simplifying cable runs. You won't see a mass shift to pure digital video/computer interfaces this year, or even next. But you will see a slow movement in that direction. Look for combination serial/analog interfaces to start coming to market this year. Also keep your eyes out for an avalanche of video scalars, as "pure" line multipliers slowly fade away. Flat-matrix devices have their own unique signal and sync requirements, which are rarely satisfied by simple line-multiplying. There will be an increased demand for glitch-free switching between RGB and video signal sources on installation projectors and monitors - a task that only video scalars can pull off. Prices will continue to drop on scalars, just as they did with line doublers. (One of the best line doublers made - DVDO's iScan Plus - sells for just $700.) Expect to see half a dozen new models at INFOCOMM this year - perhaps more, with all of 'em capable of supporting every possible video, plasma, computer, and HD format invented. Monitors: If you think the projector market has been turned upside-down, wait 'till you see what's coming down the pike for monitors! Major manufacturers have been gearing up plants in Asia for the past two years to produce both large-screen LCD displays (25" and larger) and plasma displays (25" to 50"). CRTs are rapidly falling from grace as NEC, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, Fujitsu, Sharp, Philips, LG, Samsung and others are going thin, and their targets are not only the traditional multimedia monitor market, but ultimately the consumer television market. Price are still high, but they are going to come down faster than you think. It wasn't too many years ago that a 10" 640x480 LCD monitor would set you back about $7,000. Now, you can buy 20" models with XGA resolution for less than half that amount - and they're digital-ready, to boot. Early plasma monitors were retailing for well over $15,000 - now, there are 42" models coming out at under $10,000.The interesting battle will be between TFT LCD and gas-plasma panel technology in the 25" to 32" market. Both are capable of producing very bright, contrasty images under normal room lighting, and neither one requires much of a footprint. Which will be the people's choice? Once again, outboard scalars will save the day with the display of analog video sources, but the direct digital inputs will handle everything else including DTV/HDTV. Look for several new large (over 20") video/data monitors to be introduced in the coming year with XGA and SXGA resolution. There will be a pile of plasma panels to sort through as well - look for big improvements in video scaling and expanded (10-bit and maybe even 12-bit) digital signal sampling, two big problems with previous plasma offerings. Rear-projection monitors aren't immune to the LCD/DLP onslaught. If you attend the INFOCOMM® Projection Shoot-Out® this year in Anaheim, my prediction is that a majority of the monitors shown will use some sort of flat-matrix imaging, and many of them will be equipped with single-chip DLP and three-panel LCD engines. The videowall market continues to move slowly away from CRTs, with single-chip DMDs being the "hot" imaging engine. You'll see more of them this year, and there may even be a single-chip 1280x1024 DLP model on exhibit at INFOCOMM. TFT LCDs aren't as strong in this market as DMD chips, and that's not likely to change anytime soon. JVC's holographic D-ILA is also a strong candidate for a 16:9 projection cube, a product we have yet to see come to market. Ditto Sharp's continuous grain silicon (CGS) LCD panels, which provide 1280x1280 (non-square) resolution in a 16:9 package. Sony's new 1365x768 polysilicon LCD panels would also be a natural for a 16:9 rear-projection monitor - can one be far off? Don't bet against it. Miscellany: Although tube-base technology is rapidly taking a back seat, other innovations are not. There's plenty of interest in laser imaging, with at least one company having developed a laser-driven CRT that is capable of several thousand lumens of light energy. (Think of a 9" three-gun CRT chassis on steroids!) Lasers are still problematic to work with, but hold a great deal of promise for large-venue applications simply because they have tremendous depth of field, and don't require lenses. Silicon Light Machine's grating light valve is also a technology to watch. This pixel-less light shutter can support infinite resolutions and has already been tested with 2K and higher resolution. It's not likely to appear in the Shoot-Out, but watch for announcements and demos over the coming year. One of the smallest imaging components - the lowly light-emitting diode, or LED - is making a real impact in the super-large venue display area. Stadiums, arenas, malls, and other large public venues are putting in high-brightness displays with millions of LEDs as the pixel-forming elements. Sony and SACO Smartvision are active in this area, and are targeting older technologies like Jumbotron and even videowalls. Finally, look for more and more crossover between products for the consumer and professional audio-visual markets. Sony's VPL-VW10HT home theater projector would be perfect in boardroom installations that want HDTV compatibility. NEC's and Panasonic's 42" plasma panels have an input connector jack field that has "consumer" stamped all over it with RCA and 15-pin VGA jacks. Single-chip DLP and three-chip SVGA LCD projectors are already being offered to consumers for home theater and personal data projection. Even Fujitsu's early 42" plasma panels are now on sale for under $7,000 at discount retailer Costco. That's enough forecasting! Better shut off my single-panel, 2356 x 1428 pixel holographic, 12-bit grating crystal ball, and get back to work... Copyright © 2000 Peter H. Putman / Primedia Intertec This article appears in the April 2000 issue of Sound and Video Contractor.