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THE FRONT LINE: JULY 31, 2005 |
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EXTREME MAKEOVER: PROJECTORS! I first started covering the portable projector industry back in 1991, which seems like a lifetime ago. It was big news when Epson and InFocus announced 640x480 front LCD projectors in late 1993 for about ten thousand dollars that weighed less than 25 pounds and cranked out 400 - 500 lumens. Twelve years later, you can get double the number of pixels and four times the light output in a housing that weighs 1/5 as much for 1/7 the price. In other words, you can spend $1,399 for Dell's 4.7 lb. 2300MP DLP projector with 1024x768 resolution and 2300 lumens. It's pretty obvious that projectors have evolved from specialty purchases to everyday accessories with many models priced under $2,000 and more than a few solidly priced under $1,000. ($1,000 is what lamps used to cost for some of those early-1990s LCD projectors!) I recently compiled a Projector Buyer's Guide for Studio / Monthly magazine. (This guide focuses on business and education projectors, not home theater models.) The Guide lists 51 models alone that weigh less than 6 pounds, with an additional 81 models occupying the 6-to-10 pound range. That's a total of 132 different models of sub-10 pound projectors with resolutions to 1400x1050. (Think projectors are mainstream yet?) And how the brand names have changed since 1993! Sure, InFocus is still around, as is Epson, Sharp, and Hitachi. But ASK is gone (it merged with Proxima, which in turn was bought by InFocus). So is nView, who brought the first DLP projector to market ten years ago at InfoComm '95 in Dallas. Sony and NEC joined the fun a year later, and recent newcomers have included Dell, HP, Casio, Optoma, and BenQ. The distribution channels for projectors have changed drastically as well, and you can buy 'em in big box stores like best Buy and Staples, buy direct from the manufacturer (Dell), or order them from on-line and 1-800 retailers. As average retail prices have dropped, manufacturers have discontinued their old preferred dealer relationships and controlled distribution in favor of an "anything goes" sales model. That's good news for price-sensitive markets like education and worship that are embracing projectors with a flourish. A few years back, I wrote a column titled "Good Enough?" for another publication. In it, I discussed the fact that the majority of desktop and laptop computers seemed to be leveling out at XGA (1024x768) resolution and that LCD and DLP projectors were doing the same thing. That's because the average user didn't need any more screen resolution, particularly for making PowerPoint presentations and showing video. The Buyer's Guide shows that we are still in a "leveled-out" mode in terms of resolution; nearly 130 models in the listings use native 1024x768 LCD panels or digital micromirror devices. What has changed is brightness, which is now hovering around 2000 lumens in the microportable and ultraportable categories. And prices continue to plummet to the point that you can get almost 1.5 lumens per dollar spent. Oddly, even though VGA resolution has gone the way of the dodo, there are still plenty of SVGA (800x600) projectors being sold, particularly into the education market. That's partly because the image scaling engines in these inexpensive projectors do a pretty good job with XGA signal sources. But SVGA also does a good job showing standard-definition video. Scaling 480i or 576i to 600p isn't too demanding a task thee days! There's evidence of another trend - the gradual abandonment of SXGA (1280x1024) in favor of SXGA+ (1400x1050) resolution. That's interesting from a historical standpoint, as 1280x1024 was the standard for powerhouse workstation manufacturers like DEC, IBM, and Silicon Graphics for many years. Now, we're seeing super-cheap laptop and desktop computers from Dell, HP, and others incorporating SXGA+. (One manufacturer, projectiondesign, showed almost nothing but SXGA+ models at InfoComm 2005!) Accordingly, Texas Instruments and Epson have followed suit with SXGA+ DMDs and LCD panels. A changing of the guard, perhaps? As far as the bells and whistles go, it's a mixed bag. If you want DVI connectivity, you won't find it in the majority of SVGA projectors, and many small XGA projectors are lacking this interface. The good news is that power zoom and focus becomes more affordable every day, and some manufacturers are smart enough to provide mechanical lens shift in low-cost projectors. And what about alternative technologies, like LCoS? It's still out on the fringe. LCD and DLP command the market, with the former having about a 54% market share. In particular, LCD still has a commanding lead in the 10-to-30 pound space of desktop and installation projectors, thanks to a substantial price advantage over DLP and LCoS. What's coming down the pike? Look for more XGA models to slip under $1500 by the end of this year and eventually replace SVGA by 2007 (unless those projectors drop below $500!) as manufacturers look to slim down their product lines. You'll also see more 16:9 models come to market in the $1500 to $2500 price range as the demand for widescreen and HD imaging picks up. And SXGA+ will continue to grow in popularity, pushing SXGA completely off the stage. As far as brightness grows, we are approaching the practical limit of horsepower for some of these smaller boxes. They just can't dissipate the heat fast enough to get to 2500 or 3000 lumens. What you will see instead is continued downward pressure on pricing, which will make the brightness argument moot for most customers. Now, how about a 6-lb. 1920x1080 front projector with 2500 lumens for $2,495? Dream on.... |
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