THE FRONT LINE: MARCH 8, 2005

Samsung’s 82-Inch LCD Monitor Continues The Attack On Plasma

by Peter H. Putman, CTS

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the battle between LCD and plasma imaging technology, and which will survive in the long run. Right now, plasma has the edge in retail price per screen size above 32 inches, while LCD has kicked plasma clear out of the park at 32 inches and below.

While the next battleground is the 32-inch to 42-inch market segment, industry analysts and pundits are carefully watching what’s happening up in the flat panel ‘stratosphere’: Screens with sizes at 50 inches and larger.

At CES 2005, Sharp showed a 65-inch LCD TV from its new Gen 6 fab in Japan, and this product will likely have a ‘real world’ SRP on it by September. LG and Samsung also branded and priced 55-inch and 57-inch LCD TVs in Las Vegas.

Today, Samsung dropped a bombshell in announcing an 82-inch 1920x1080 LCD display panel, the first new design from the joint Samsung – Sony SLCD Gen 7 fab in Tangjeong, Korea. This line will crank out enormous LCD motherglass substrates measuring 1870mm by 2200mm (roughly 73” x 86”).

According to the news release, Samsung can produce two 82-inch LCD panels from each piece of motherglass. Keep in mind that these panels would be quite expensive as a finished TV product, so the significance is not that we will soon have 82-inch flat panel TVs stacked up in Best Buy.

Rather, the cost of smaller-sized LCD panels will come down even faster, which means that 32-inch to 42-inch flat panel battleground will be a noisy, dusty, and bloody place over the next two years. The ‘sweet spot’ for TV sales is still in the 26-inch to 42-inch range; plasma will likely concede this space to LCD by early 2007 and maybe sooner if two things happen:

(1) The retail prices of 37-inch, 40-inch, and 42-inch LCD drop well below $2,000
(2) The major Japanese players in plasma who also have investments in new LCD fabs – Hitachi and Panasonic – find profit margins squeezed to the bone on their 37-inch and 42-inch plasma products

The Koreans (LG and Samsung) are major players in both plasma and LCD manufacturing, but the day is fast approaching when they will have to make a similar ‘either-or’ decision. LG Philips will no doubt announce a large LCD panel product in short order to keep up with the Jones’, stirring the pot even more.

Where does this leave microdisplay technology? Ultimately, out in the cold, if consumers find that prices of large flat panels (50 inches and up) are falling into their budget. The appeal of a big-screen TV with bright, saturated colors, wide viewing angles, true HD resolution, and no need to change a projection lamp is easy to understand – look at all the sales of EDTV (852x480) plasma this past holiday season.

Downward pricing pressure from LCD and lower-cost Chinese and Korean PDP products will quickly force 50-inch plasma below $3500, putting a real squeeze on LCD and DLP rear-projection sets. In turn, LCD will continue banging away at the doors to the 37 to 42-inch flat panel market, the ‘bread and butter’ of plasma manufacturers.

It’s not a pretty picture.

Copyright ©2005 Peter H. Putman / Roam Consulting Inc.
All electronic and mechanical reproduction rights are reserved.