Category: The Front Line

You Don’t Need A Weatherman

Just when you think you’ve seen it all, you’re reminded of just how sharply the balance of power in consumer electronics manufacturing has shifted to China. In a New York Times story from February 2, Sharp Corporation – a Japanese colossus in everything from LCD displays to office products and personal gadgets – let it be known that they are seriously considering a sale to Hon Hai Precision Industries of Taiwan.

You may not recognize the name Hon Hai, but you may know one of their subsidiaries: Foxconn, the manufacturer of just about everything with an Apple logo on it (IPhones, iPads, MacBooks, Apple TV, etc.) And Hon Hai is no stranger to Sharp, having bought nearly 50% of the latter’s Gen 10 LCD fab capacity in Sakai, Japan a few years back.

Why, and how? Sharp did not fare well during the global recession. Sakai, the world’s largest LCD fab, opened in 2008 as the world economy was tanking, affecting demand for all things electronic – especially liquid-crystal displays. Because Hon Hai (er, Foxconn) uses VA-type glass in its products, chairman Terry Gou approached the company with a deal it couldn’t refuse – except that Sharp got back just 20 cents on the dollar for its $4B investment in Sakai.

Several years of brutal red ink for Sharp brought the company to where it is today. Having borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars from Japanese banks to stay afloat as its worldwide TV business evaporated (and having sold small minority shares to Qualcomm and Samsung along the way to raise additional cash), Sharp’s day of reckoning has arrived.

Those were the days, my friend...we thought they'd never end...

Those were the days, my friend…we thought they’d never end…

The company, which ten years ago had a 21% worldwide market share in LCD TV shipments, sold its North American TV business to Hisense last year, along with an assembly plant in Mexico. The Sharp name will still be found on LCD TVs made by Hisense in China and southeast Asia, but largely as a bargain brand.

Not surprisingly, Japanese banks are reluctant to throw more good money after bad. According to the story, Sharp has seen $10B in losses over the past five years, reporting a net loss of $200M for the most recent quarter. There is a home-grown suitor – the Innovation Network Corporation of Japan (INCJ), a government-backed organization that is trying to keep some semblance of display R&D and manufacturing in Japan.

Trouble is; Hon Hai’s offer of $5B is twice as much as INCJ is willing to put on the table. INCJ, though, has said they will push to line up more financing from Japanese banks. But given the staggering losses incurred by Sharp, Panasonic, and Sony a few years ago, combined with Toshiba’s “cooked books” and exit from the television market and similar departures by Mitsubishi and Hitachi, means the old ways of doing business in Tokyo are probably over for good.

And things aren’t all rosy for Hon Hai, either. Although they are a strong player in consumer electronics – perhaps the dominant player in manufacturing – their profit margins have been shrinking in recent years. The company has branched into electric cars and robotics to diversify, but acquiring Sharp could prove to be a bit too much to swallow.

This is the next

This is the next “gold rush” in display applications.

Gou would love to have that Gen 10 plant running in China, and if he’s as savvy as I suspect, he can already see the enormous market opening up for transportation displays – cars, buses, trains, planes, ships, trucks, you name it – around the world. These displays are small to mid-size, resulting in more lower-cost cuts from larger motherglass and higher yields (and probably higher sales numbers than TVs and computer monitors).

This trend became obvious a few years ago at CES and this year, it went off the charts. Consider the market for automobiles alone – virtual dashboards, center consoles, GPs, rear-seat TVs – and you can see the potential to make billions of dollars. But you’ve gotta have enough reasonably-priced “glass” to do it.

Sharp’s CEO Kozo Takahashi said the company would take until the beginning of March to make its decision. Should the board opt to take Gou’s offer, that decision could turn out to be a tipping point for other Japanese manufacturers who are struggling to see profits in display-related manufacturing and sales.

In any case, this should convince you that the landscape for consumer electronics really is changing, and changing in a BIG way. You’ll see increasing numbers of TCL and Hisense TVs in big box stores this year, competing with the “Big 3” – Samsung, LG, and Sony. You’ll also see more Chinese-branded mobile phones from carriers, along with personal electronics like smart watches.

Like Bob Dylan sang so many years ago, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows…”

CES 2016: Some Second Thoughts

We’re almost a month removed from the 2016 International CES, which was quite the crowded bazaar of electronic gadgets. I’ve already reported on what I saw at the show; now, I want to take a few minutes to do some “Monday morning quarterbacking.”

Quarterly reports in this week from two of the CE world’s titans – Apple and Samsung – aren’t very rosy. In fact, both companies are predicting a slowdown in sales of smartphones, which was arguably the hottest CE category over the past six years (even more so than televisions). Although shipments of smartphones are predicted to rise this year, consumer demand for them is in decline.

That shouldn’t be surprising. I bought a Samsung Galaxy V in December of 2014 and it’s still serving me well. In fact, it can do more things than I need, so I’m not likely to replace it when my service contract expires this coming December. (Yep, I’m one of a dying breed of two-year service contract holders!) And I suspect that many other smartphone owners feel the same way.

Tablets were also supposed to be hot prospects for 2015, with some analysts predicting 18% year-to-year growth. Yet, tablet shipments actually went into decline, while sales of laptop computers actually exceeded predictions. Once again, if you have a tablet that’s a couple of years old, there’s no real reason to replace it unless the battery goes dead.

The only drawback with some of these products is inadequate memory capacity. Most phones and tablets start with 16 GB of memory, expandable with micro SD cards. Yet, given how quickly apps and downloads can gobble up that space, it’s wiser to start with 32 GB and maybe even 64 GB these days. After all, memory is cheap (unless you buy it from Apple).

So – mobile devices aren’t providing the stellar sales and returns we all hoped for. How about televisions?

There’s no question that shipments and sales of 1080p TVs are in a slow decline, and have been for a few years. Practically speaking; if you bought a big (46” and larger) “smart” Full HD LCD TV in the past five years, you already have fast Wi-Fi connectivity, Netflix and possibly Amazon streaming, and three or four HDMI inputs – most of which you’re probably not using, if you stream video.

So why would you shell out money for a new Full HDTV? You wouldn’t, except that you can now buy a much larger screen for the money. But that’s not what’s happening – people are opting to move up to Ultra HD resolution, as the prices for these sets have just about reached parity with same-size Full HDTVs. And not surprisingly, Ultra HDTV sales have been strong and are growing by double digits each year. Still a small portion of overall TV shipments, but essential to the bottom line of Samsung (37% UHDTV market share through June 2015), LG (17% share), and Sony (10% share).

What’s new this year is a stronger presence from China Inc. brands, notably TCL and Hisense. The former acquired the Sanyo brand and factory from Panasonic, while the latter now owns Sharp’s US TV business and a former assembly plant in Mexico.

Excepting Ultra HDTV, it’s very difficult to make any money in the TV biz these days. What we’re seeing is more manufacturing and display panel sourcing from China, as the quality of LCD panels for TVs made at BOE, CSOT, Hisense, and TCL is very good. (And they’re cranking out Ultra HD panels, too.)

2016 will be the year that OLED TV technology finally goes mainstream. LG has placed some big bets on their white OLED / RGBW process and is also selling OLED panels to five of the largest Chinese TV manufacturers. Prices continue to fall stateside; LG just announced a Super Bowl promotion through February 13 that will snag you a 55-inch Full HD curved set for $1,999 and a flat or curved 55-inch Ultra HD model for $2,999.

OLEDs are already in wide use in smartphones and tablets (both my Samsung tablet and smartphone use them) and we’re seeing them in smart watches, too. LG Display’s demonstrations of super-curved, warped, and roll-up OLED displays at CES shows the promise of this technology for mobile displays, particularly in transportation applications.

For displays, we can expect more of the same in 2016 – ever-larger TV s at lower prices as retailers try to stir up sales of hat has become a disposable commodity. You can buy a 50-inch Hisense Full HD set now for $399, amazingly, and 42-inch TVs are getting ever close to the $200 price barrier.

So what’s going to change? It will take a while, but the 60 GHz wireless technology demos I saw in Las Vegas are very promising. Imagine streaming Ultra HD content with high dynamic range from your Ultra HD Blu-ray player to your 65-inch 4K OLED without cables. Or showing video clips from your phone or tablet the same way.

Better yet, how about downloading an HD movie before you travel in just 5 to 10 seconds? It’s possible with the new 60 GHz 802.11ad protocol, as demonstrated by Qualcomm with a bumper crop of tri-band (2.4/5/60 GHz) modems at CES, and a suitably-equipped phone or tablet. This one’s a game-changer, but I don’t think you’ll see many products with this feature until a year from now. Peraso’s aftermarket 60 GHz USB wireless links might help, as they can retrofit to any laptop or desktop computer.

The other category you’ll want to keep your eye on is the Internet of Things. It seems like every gadget has an IP address and can be controlled by an app. Through in Wi-Fi, and you have home security systems you can install yourself for about $250 bucks. Or wireless doorbell cameras, or LED bulbs that double as cameras and motion detectors. (And even alarms that monitor your alarms.)

This continual downward pricing pressure (again, led by Chinese manufacturing) will shift profitability away from hardware to software. Verizon Wireless, the last company to abandon annual service contracts, doesn’t really care what you send on your phone. They just want that recurring monthly revenue stream that you generate. (Notice how nobody charges for voice calling and texting anymore, just blocks of data? The increasing use of Wi-Fi for smartphone connectivity has a lot to do with it.)

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: “Hardware is cheap, and anyone can make it.” Software and services are where the growth lies as we enter the second half of this decade, and you’ll see just how low prices will fall a year from now when you can buy a fully-featured smartphone for $300, you’ll be able to score a 65-inch Ultra HD “smart” TV with HDR and WCG support for $800, and a 4K “action” camera will cost less than $150.

May you live in interesting times!

CES 2016 In The Rear View Mirror

I’m a little less than a week back from one of the world’s largest trade shows, the 2016 International CES. According to press releases from the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), the new name for the Consumer Electronics Association, upwards of 170,000 people attended the show this year, which was spread out over several venues in Las Vegas.

Based on the crowds I saw, I’d say that number wasn’t far off. Walking through booths in the Las Vegas Convention Center gave me the feeling of strolling along the beach, unaware that a tidal wave was sneaking up on you – one minute you had a particular exhibit all to yourself, and the next, you were swamped by a sea of bodies adorned with CES badges.

Trying to predict which trends in electronics will be “hot” each year is basically a fool’s errand. Going into the show, I was deluged with press releases about “Internet of Things” gadgets, and the show didn’t disappoint – I saw everything from connected thermostats and body sensors to pet food dispensers and shower heads that monitor how much water each member of your family uses – and record that data, too.

The LG floor-to-ceiling OLED wall at CES put many people into a trance.

The LG floor-to-ceiling OLED wall at CES put many people into a trance.

 

TCL set up their usual tiny booth in the Central Hall.

TCL set up their usual tiny booth in the Central Hall.

Last year, the show was all about Ultra HDTV, with some unusual video aspect ratios and pixel counts thrown in. This year, I figured high dynamic range (HDR) would be the “hot” item in every booth. Surprisingly, it wasn’t generating all that much buzz, even though it was featured in the Sony, Samsung, LG, and Chinese TV booths. Instead, there seemed to me much more interest in virtual reality (VR); examples of which were to be found everywhere in the LVCC and also over at the Sands Expo Center.

What was an eye-opener (although not entirely unexpected) was the reduction in booth space devoted to televisions in the Samsung, Panasonic, and LG booths. Sony chose to use Ultra HDTVs to illustrate HDR, wide color gamut, and local area dimming concepts, while Panasonic largely ignored TVs altogether, featuring just a 65-inch UHD OLED TV in one part of their booth and a 55-inch 8K LCD set in another; primarily to demonstrate 8K signal transport over optical fiber.

LG and Samsung devoted more real estate than ever before to connected and “smart” appliances, tablets, smartphones, and personal electronics like smart watches, subtly pushing TVs (of which there were still plenty, believe me) to a secondary role with less square footage. The fact is; appliances are more profitable than TVs these days…WAY more profitable. And Samsung and LG had plenty of refrigerators, ovens, washers, and even dryers out for inspection.

For LG, CES was a big “coming out” party for their expanding line of OLED Ultra HDTVs – they were everywhere, dazzling with their deep blacks and saturated colors. But LCD still plays a part in the LG ecosystem: The 98-inch 8K LCD panel that blew us away last year made a return appearance, as did the 105-inch 21:9 5K (5120×2160) model.

This Innolux 8K LCD monster TV showed up in the Hisense booth and a few other locations.

This Innolux 8K LCD monster TV showed up in the Hisense booth and a few other locations.

 

Samsung showed the

Samsung showed the “World’s largest 170-inch TV.” Apparently there are smaller ones I didn’t know about.

Over in the Samsung booth, they kept the “mine’s bigger than yours” contest going with a 170-inch Ultra HDTV based on a LCD panel fabbed at CSOT in China and equipped with quantum dots. (Last year, Samsung insisted their quantum dot illumination technology was to be called “nanocrystals.” This year, they did a 180-degree turn, and are now calling them quantum dots.) A curved 8K TV and some demos of live broadcast Ultra HD with HDR were also showcased alongside the company’s new Ultra HD Blu-ray player ($399 when it ships in the spring).

The “towers” and stacks of LG and Samsung televisions we used to marvel at a decade ago have now found their way into the ever-expanding booths of Chinese TV brands like Hisense, TCL, Changhong, Haier, Konka, and Skyworth. (Not familiar names? Don’t worry, you’ll get to know them soon enough.) And notable by its absence was Sharp Electronics, whose US TV business and assembly plant in Mexico were acquired by Hisense last year. That’s quite a change from ten years ago, when the company held a 21% worldwide market share in LCD TV shipments.

To be sure, there was a Sharp meeting room w-a-y in the back of the Hisense booth, which was enormous – almost as big as TCL’s behemoth in the middle of the Central Hall. And the Konka, Changhong, and Skyworth booths weren’t far behind in size. If you needed to see the writing on the wall regarding the future of television manufacturing, it couldn’t have been more clear – everything is slowly and inexorably moving to China. (It’s a good bet that the LCD panel in your current TV came out of a Chinese or Taiwanese assembly plant!)

TVs were just part of the story in Las Vegas. I had been waiting a few years to see which companies would finally pick up the baton and start manufacturing 802.11ad Wi-Fi chipsets. For those readers who haven’t heard of it before, 802.11ad – or its more common names, “Wireless Gigabit” and “Certified Wireless Gigabit” is a standard that uses the 60 GHz millimeter-wave band to transmit high-speed data over 2 GHz-wide channels.

Letv demonstrated wireless 4K video streaming over 60 GHz 802.11ad, using this new smartphone and Qualcomm's chipset.

Letv demonstrated wireless 4K video streaming over 60 GHz 802.11ad, using this new smartphone and Qualcomm’s chipset.

 

Are you on the USB Type-C bandwagon yet? (Check your new laptop or smartphone...)

Are you on the USB Type-C bandwagon yet? (Check your new laptop or smartphone…)

Considering that the current channels in the 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz band are only 20 MHz wide, and that the 802.11ac channel bonding protocol can only combine enough of them to create a 160 MHz channel, that’s quite a leap in bandwidth! The catch? 60 GHz signals are reflected by just about solid object, limiting their use to inside rooms. But with high-power operation and steerable antennas, those signals can travel a pretty good distance.

In-room, high-bandwidth operation is perfect for streaming video – even at 4K resolution – from phones, tablets, set-top boxes, and even Blu-ray players to TVs, projectors, AV receivers, and switching and distribution gear. Qualcomm had demos of numerous ready-to-manufacture tri-band modems (2.4/5/60 GHz), along with LETV’s latest smart phone with a built-in 60 GHz radio chip. And SiBEAM, a part of Lattice Semiconductor, showed 4K streaming through their WiHD technology, along with close-proximity interface coupling using SNAP to download images and video from a waterproofed GoPro camera.

Lattice had some other tricks up their sleeve in their meeting room. One of those was using a Windows 10 phone with a MHL (Mobile High-definition Link) connection through USB Type-C to create a virtual desktop PC. All that needed to be added was a mouse, a keyboard, and monitor. In another area, they showed a scheme to compress Ultra HD signals before transmitting them over an HDBaseT link, with decompression at the far end. This, presumably to overcome the 18 Gb/s speed limit of HDMI 2.0.

DisplayPort had a good demonstration of Display Stream Compression (DSC). That's the chipset under that enormous fan.

DisplayPort had a good demonstration of Display Stream Compression (DSC). That’s the chipset under that enormous fan.

 

Ultra HD Blu-ray is here, complete with high dynamic range mastering. How will it hold up against the growing trend to stream video?

Ultra HD Blu-ray is here, complete with high dynamic range mastering. How will it hold up against the growing trend to stream video?

Not far away, the “funny car” guys at the MHL Consortium showed their superMHL interface linking video to another LG 98-inch 8K LCD display. Converting what was once a tiny, 5-pin interface designed for 1080p/60 streaming off phones and tablets to a 32-pin, full-size symmetrical connector that can hit speeds of 36 Gb/s seems like putting Caterpillar truck tires and a big-block Chevy engine in a Smart Car to me…but they did it anyway, and added support for USB Type-C Alternate mode. Now, they’re ready for 8K, or so they keep telling me. (That’s fine, but the immediate need is for faster interfaces to accommodate Ultra HD with 10-bit and 12-bit RGB color at high frame rates. Let’s hear about some design wins!)

At the nearby VESA/DisplayPort booth, there were numerous demonstrations of video streaming over USB Type-C connections in Alternate mode, with one lash-up supporting two 1920x1080p monitors AND a 2550×1536 monitor, all at the same time. DP got somewhat faster with version 1.3 (32 Gb/s) and now a new version (1.4) will be announced by the end of January. The VESA guys also had a nice exhibit of Display Stream Compression (DSC), which can pack down a display signal by a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio with essentially no loss or latency (a few microseconds). If we’re going to keep pushing clock speeds higher and higher, compression is inevitable.

The world of display interfacing appears to becoming more disjointed, what with the majority of consumer devices still supporting HDMI 1.4 and 2.0, while an increasing number of computer and video card manufacturers are jumping on the DisplayPort bandwagon (Apple, HP, and Lenovo, among others). How superMHL will fit into this is anyone’s guess: The format is TMDS-based, like HDMI, but outstrips it in every way (HDMI 2.0 does not support DSC or USB Type-C operation). Do we really need two TMDS-based interfaces, going forward?

Speaking of USB Type-C, everybody and their brother/sister at CES had Type-C hubs, adapters, and even extenders out for inspection. If any connector is going to force the competing display interface standards to get in line, it will be this one. Apple, Intel, Lenovo, and several phone/tablet manufacturers are already casting their lots with Type-C, and it looks to be the next “sure thing” as we head toward a universal data/video/audio/power interface. I even came home with a credit card-sized press kit with a reversible USB 2.0 / 3.0 Type-C plug built-in!

First it was vinyl. Then cassettes. Now, Kodak is bringing back Super 8mm film and cameras. (I kid you not!)

First it was vinyl. Then cassettes. Now, Kodak is bringing back Super 8mm film and cameras. (I kid you not!)

 

Lenovo is one of four laptop manufacturers now offering OLED screens, here on a ThinkPad X1 Yoga (right).

Lenovo is one of four laptop manufacturers now offering OLED screens, here on a ThinkPad X1 Yoga (right).

So – how about HDR? Yes, a few companies showed it, and there were spirited discussions over dinner whether OLEDs could actually show signals with high dynamic range (they most assuredly can, as they can reproduce 15 stops of light from just above black to full white without clipping) and whether you actually need thousands of cd/m2 to qualify as an HDR display (I’m not in that camp; displays that bright can be painful to look at).

For LCDs, quantum dots (QDs) will lead the way to HDR. Both QD Vision and 3M had demos of quantum dot illuminants, with QD Vision focusing on light pipes for now and 3M partnering with Nanosys to manufacture a quantum dot enhancement film. Both work very well and provide a much larger color gamut than our current ITU Rec.709 color space, which looks positively washed-out compared to the more expansive Rec.2020 color gamut associated with UHD and HDR. QD Vision also showed the reduction in power consumption over OLEDs when using QDs. However, you won’t get the deep blacks and wide viewing angles out of an LCD in any case, so a few more watts may not matter to the videophiles.

The Ultra HD Blu-ray format had its formal debut at CES with Panasonic and Samsung both showing players. The latter can be pre-ordered for $399 and will ship in the spring. (Remember when Samsung’s first-ever Blu-ray player sold for nearly $2,000 almost a decade ago?) To support HDR – which requires 10-bit encoding – the HDMI interface must be type 2.0a to correctly read the metadata. That can be in the DolbyVision format, or the Technicolor format, but the baseline definition is HDR-10.

LG Display's flexible 18-inch OLED display was just too cool for words.

LG Display’s flexible 18-inch OLED display was just too cool for words.

 

Stand four 65-inch UHD OLED panels on end, stitch them together, and this is what you get. Bibbedy-bobbedy-boo!

Stand four 65-inch UHD OLED panels on end, stitch them together, and this is what you get. Bibbedy-bobbedy-boo!

I saved the best for last. Every year, LG Display invites a few journalists up to what we call the “candy store” to see the latest in display technology. And this year didn’t disappoint: How about dual-side 55-inch flexible OLED TVs just millimeters thick? Or a 25-inch waterfall (curved) display that could form the entire center console in a car, with flexible OLEDs in the dashboard creating bright, colorful, and contrasty gauges?

LGD has WAY too much fun coming up with demos for this suite. I saw four 65-inch OLED panels stacked on end, edge to edge, and bent into an S-curve to create a 2.2:1 ratio widescreen UHD+ display. And it also had video playing on both sides. In another location, I saw a jaw-dropping 31.5” 8K LCD monitor with almost perfect uniformity, and an 82-inch “pillar” LCD display.

How about a 55-inch UHD OLED display rolled into a half-pipe, with you standing at the center, playing a video game? Talk about filling your field of view! Next to it was a convex 55-inch display, wrapped around a ceiling support pole. And next to that, a 55-inch transparent OLED display with graphics and text floating over real jewelry, arranged on tiers. The actual transparency index is about 40% and the concept worked great.

Toyota's Future Concept Vehicle (FCV) is a bit roomier than last year's sidecar-shaped model.

Toyota’s Future Concept Vehicle (FCV) is a bit roomier than last year’s sidecar-shaped model.

 

Wow, drones are getting REALLY big these days!

Wow, drones are getting REALLY big these days!

The icing on the cake was an 18-inch flexible OLED with 800×1200 resolution that could be rolled up into a tube or a cone-like shape while showing HD video. This was one of those “I gotta get me one of these!” moments, but significantly, it shows how OLED technology has matured to the point where it can be manufactured on flexible substrates. And what is the largest market in the world or displays? Transportation, where G-forces and vibration eventually crack rigid substrates, like LCD glass.

That’s just a snapshot of what I saw, and I haven’t even mentioned drones (buzzing all over the place), fold-up scooters and hoverboards, smart appliances, pet cams, alarms that alert you when an alarm goes off (really!), wooden smartphones (really!), talking spoons and forks (really!), toothbrushes linked to video games (would I kid you?), and 4K action cams with built-in solar cell chargers.

Gotta run now. My phone just sent me a Wi-Fi alarm that a Bluetooth-connected doorbell camera spotted the UPS guy delivering a package I was already alerted about via email to my desktop that signaled a buzzer via ZigBee in my virtual desktop PC that was connected wirelessly to my smartphone, currently streaming 4K video over a 60 GHz link to my “smart” TV that is also…also…also…

Oh, great. Now I’ve forgotten what I was talking about…Does anyone make an iRemember app? (Look for my “second thoughts” column later this month…)

2016 – A Turning Point For Television

In a few short weeks, I (and hundreds of my colleagues in the press) will dutifully board planes for Las Vegas to once again spend a week walking the show floor at International CES. We’ll listen to PR pitches, grab fast-food meals on the fly, show up late for appointments, have numerous ad hoc discussions in hallways and cabs, and try to make sense of all the new technologies unveiled in the Las Vegas Convention Center and nearby hotels.

As usual, many of us will want to focus on televisions – or more specifically, what televisions are becoming. TVs have always been an important product category at CES, and that was particularly true with the introduction of digital, high definition TV in the late 1990s, followed by plasma and then LCD display technologies in the early to mid-2000s.

Today, the bloom is largely off the rose. TVs have become commodities, thanks to aggressive pricing and distribution by Korean manufacturers that have largely driven the Japanese brands out of the business. And we’re seeing that cycle repeat itself as China becomes the nexus for TV manufacturing and prices for 1080p sets continue in free fall.

But something new is here – Ultra HD (a/k/a 4K). And the transition is happening at a breathtaking pace: The first 4K / UHD sets appeared on these shores in 2012 with astronomically high price tags. Four years later, you can buy a 55-inch Ultra HDTV with “smart” wireless functions for less than $800, a price point that has forced same-size 1080p sets below $500.

And it’s not just more pixels. High dynamic range (HDR) is coming to market, as are new illumination technologies that will provide much larger color gamuts. LCD and OLED panel manufacturers are now able to address at 10 bits per pixel, breaking past the now-inadequate 8-bit standard that has held back displays of all kinds for over a decade.

Chinese manufacturer Hisense now owns the Sharp TV brand, and will bring a line of quantum dot-equipped Ultra HDTVs to market in 2016.

Chinese manufacturer Hisense now owns the Sharp TV brand, and will bring a line of quantum dot-equipped Ultra HDTVs to market in 2016.

Screen sizes are getting larger, too. Ten years ago, a 42-inch TV was considered “big” and anything larger was a home theater installation. Today? Consumers are routinely buying 50-inch, 55-inch, and even 60-inch sets as prices have fallen. That same 42-inch set is often consigned to a bedroom or kid’s room, or maybe a summer home.

Back in September of 2008, I bought a Panasonic 42-inch 1080p plasma TV for about $1,100. It had two HDMI 1.3 connections, three analog composite/component video inputs, and no network connectivity of any kind. But wow, did it make great pictures!

Seven years later, that TV sits in my basement, unused. It was replaced by a price-comparable, more energy-efficient 46-inch LCD model after Hurricane Sandy killed our power for several days and I did a whole-house energy audit. (And no, the LCD picture quality doesn’t compare to the plasma.)

But that’s not all that changed. I picked up four HDMI 1.4 inputs along the way (yep, it was set up for 3D), plus built-in Wi-Fi and “smart” functions. And I added a sound bar to make up for the awful quality of the built-in speakers. Plus, I added a Blu-ray player to round out the package, although it hardly sees any discs these days – it’s mostly used for streaming.

So – let’s say I’d like to replace that TV in 2016, just five years later. What would my options be?

To start with, I’d be able to buy a lot more screen. Right now, I could pick up a Samsung or LG 65-inch smart 1080p set for what I spent in 2011. Or, I could bite the bullet and make the move to Ultra HD with a 55-inch or 60-inch screen, complete with four HDMI inputs (one or two would be version 2.0, with HDCP 2.2 support), Wi-Fi, Netflix streaming (very important these days), and possibly a quantum dot backlight for HDR and WCG support.

My new set should support the HEVC H.265 codec, of course. That will make it possible to stream UHD content into my TV at 12 – 18 Mb/s from Netflix, Amazon Prime, Vimeo, Vudu, and any other company that jumps on the 4K content bandwagon. I could even go out and buy a brand-new Ultra HD Blu-ray player to complement it. But it’s more likely I’d opt to stream UHD content over my new, fast 30 Mb/s Internet connection from Comcast.

Now, it might pay to wait until later in 2016, when I could be sure of purchasing an Ultra HDTV that would support one or more of the proposed HDR delivery standards for disc-based and streaming UHD movies. And maybe I’d have more “fast” inputs, like DisplayPort 1.2 or even 1.3 to go along with HDMI 2.0 (and quite possibly, superMHL).

And I might even swing back over to an emissive display, to replace the picture quality I got from my old plasma set. That would mean purchasing an OLED Ultra HDTV, which would also support HDR and WCG, plus all of the usual bells and whistles (Wi-Fi, multiple HDMI/DP inputs, streaming, apps).

My point? We’re going to see some amazing technology in the next generation of televisions at ICES. And consumers are apparently warming up to Ultra HD – while sales of 1080p sets continue to decline, Ultra HD sales are climbing by double-digit percentages. I expect that number to accelerate as we near the Super Bowl, even though it won’t be broadcast in 4K (yet!).

If you are thinking about upgrading your main TV, 2016 could give you plenty of reasons to do it. My advice? Wait until all the puzzle pieces are in place for delivery of HDR and WCG to your home, and look into upgrading your Internet connections – streaming 4K will be here faster than you realize. And if you can live with your 1080p set until the fall of 2016, you’ll be amazed and likely very pleased at the upgrade…

More Pixels + Bigger Screens = More Power Consumption

I don’t often hear the words “National Resource Defense Council” and “Ultra HDTV” in the same sentence. But the NRDC just released a report stating that power consumption in Ultra HD (4K) TVs is about 30% higher than same-size 1080p TV sets.

The NRDC report goes on to say that one-third of all new TV purchases are for screens 50 inches and larger, which should come as no surprise given how dramatically TV prices have dropped in the past three years. And the NRDC calculates that, if Americans were to replace their older 1080p sets with Ultra HDTVs in screens sizes from 36 inches and up (who has a 36-inch TV??), the additional power consumption could amount to $1 billion dollars annually, equivalent to three times the annual residential power consumption of San Francisco. (I love it when press releases come up with offbeat statistics like that one.)

The substance of this argument should come as no surprise to anyone: An Ultra HDTV has four times as many pixels as a 1080p set (which is why it was originally called Quad HD). So it stands to reason that an Ultra HDTV would use more power, although a 30% increase seems on the low side.

The NRDC apparently tested a few models of TVs and found “…there were dramatic differences in the power consumption among UHD models of the same size, indicating the technology already exists to make energy-saving improvements to the most inefficient UHD televisions.”

The report went on to state that “Consumers can cut several hundred dollars off the lifetime energy costs of a new UHD TV by a) buying models with the ENERGY STAR® label, b) ensuring Automatic Brightness Control is enabled, and c) avoiding the quick start feature on Internet-connected televisions that results in significant amounts of wasted standby power.”

Graphic from NRDC report

Graphic from NRDC report

Most LCD TVs use amorphous silicon (a-Si) or low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) thin-film transistors to switch the pixels on and off. These technologies have been around for some time, and they have their disadvantages – high leakage current is one. But the yields are good and predictable.

A solution to the power consumption issue us waiting in the wings. Oxide TFTs, or more accurately, indium gallium zinc oxide TFTs, look like the logical replacement for a-Si and LTPS. IGZO, in development for over 30 years and first commercialized by Sharp, promises low leakage current, a smaller size (more light passes through the pixel as a result), faster on/off switching times, and lower power consumption.

That last attribute alone makes IGZO attractive as we move into the worlds of 4K / UHDTV, 5K, 6K, and even 8K displays and TVs. My guess is that most of that 30% power consumption increase would be rolled back by moving to IGZO TFT arrays.

The catch is cost – IGZO is expensive to implement in a consumer television that might sell for all of $700 – $800. Right now, Sharp is implementing IGZO in their line of Ultra HD desktop monitors, small multipurpose displays, and possibly their large (104” and 120”) Ultra HD commercial monitors.

They’re not alone. I was told by LG Display at CES a couple years ago that their OLED TVs also used IGZO TFTs to switch pixels. Given the price of those sets, the added cost of IGZO isn’t as much of a problem: LG’s 55-inch Ultra HD OLED TV currently retails for about $3,000.

The NRDC report didn’t state which models they tested. Were these conventional edge-lit, or full array LED models? Were any quantum dot Ultra HDTVs tested? How about Samsung’s S-series UHDTVs? What picture mode was tested – Dynamic? Standard? Movie/Cinema?

As for the NRDC’s recommendations; all TVs come with Energy Star ratings, so it shouldn’t be difficult to figure out which models are the best penny-pinchers. However, turning on ambient light sensors to dim the screen depending on room light does funny things to picture quality, and I wouldn’t recommend it.

Instead, simply set the contrast to about 80, brightness to 40 – 50, and color temperature to “warm.” (This presumes you’ve already taken the TV out of “dynamic” mode). If you can adjust the backlight levels, crank them back to about 60 – 70 and see if they are bright enough for everyday viewing. (Turn OFF all of the other image/picture enhancements found in basic and advanced picture menus, too.)

Granted; turning off the quick start feature will reduce power consumption when you’re not watching. I don’t mind waiting a few seconds for my 46-inch 1080p set to turn on, but it only uses 160 watts to begin with.

Here’s one last recommendation: Don’t buy a new TV on Black Friday, or even before Christmas. Wait instead until the two – three week period before Super Bowl 50 (Sunday, February 7, 2016) to make your purchase, and you should score a great deal on a new Ultra HDTV. (And don’t forget to check the Energy Star tag!)