Category: The Front Line

A More Mobile Mobile is Coming

Data traffic on mobile networks will reach 367 exabytes — that’s 367×10^18 bytes or 367 billion gigabytes — in 2020, up from 44 exabytes in 2015, according to Cisco Systems’ recently released Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015-2020.

A lot of that is video, which accounted for 55% of all mobile data traffic in 2015, and will account for 75% in 2020, predicts Cisco. But significant contributions to growth are expected from automotive infotainment and mobile networks to support the Internet of Things, including connected cars, said a Cisco Global Technology Policy VP in a company blog on February 3.

Auto manufacturers recognize that in-car electronic technology is now a stronger driver of sales than traditional measures of automotive performance like torque, power, straight-line acceleration, and cornering ability.

Automotive connectivity is here now, of course, in such common systems as GPS navigation and radar detectors that use GPS to recognize fixed sources of x-ray emissions, such as automatic doors, and not count them as “threats.”

Hyundai Mobis path guidance with heads-up display. (Photo: Ken Werner)

Hyundai Mobis path guidance with heads-up display. (Photo: Ken Werner)

But there is much more to come, with the integration of in-carsystems, vehicle-to-vehicle communication, and vehicle-to-mobile-network communication culminating in autonomous vehicles. Although we are beginning to talk (a lot) about autonomous vehicles, non-specialists may not have been giving too much thought to the various levels of vehicle automation. Fortunately, our friends at the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administraton (NHTSA) have.

The NHTSA defines five levels of vehicle automation.

Level 0: No automation
Level 1: Function-specific automation, such electronic stability control and ABS. This is standard today.
Level 2: Combined function automation. An example is adaptive cruise control combined with lane centering. Such systems are widely available today as extra-cost options.
Level 3: Limited self-driving automation. The driver can, under certain conditions, cede full control of all safety-critical functions to the vehicle. The driver must be available for occasional control, or to take over when conditions are no longer suitable for self-driving.
Level 4: Full self-driving automation. The driver is expection to provide destination or navigation input, but not to control the vehicle at any time during a trip.

At TU Automotive’s one-day “Consumer Telematics Show,” held in Las Vegas during CES 2016, the members of a panel entitled “Making Autonomous Driving a Reality,” opined that Level 2 is an impressive offering that makes commutes much less tiring. Level 4 is much harder to do, but Level 3 is tricky because it requires the driver to switch from complete uninvolvement to taking full control, perhaps rather quickly (although the NHTSA definition specifies that a reasonable amount of time should be provide for the driver to do this). People tend not to be good at this sort of transition, particularly when they don’t have the ongoing situational awareness a driver — at least an attentive driver — would traditionally have. One panel member suggested that this Level 3 scenario may be unworkabel and that we will have to leap from Level 2 to Level 4.

A final comment from a panel member was “Don’t forget the social component of the human-car interaction.” As the car does more, the driver is likely to anthropomorphize the car. Man-machine communication would be optimized if the car could respond in kind. “Hello, Chevy….” “Hello, Ken. My but you look sporty today.” What kind of holographic avatar should Chevy have to optimize this communication? For that matter, what kind of avatar should I have? I can’t have Chevy seeing me the way I really am.

OLED-TV Is Real: Sales Reached $1 Billion Dollars in 2015

One billion dollars worth of OLED-TV sets were sold last year, seven times the sales in 2014, according to a recent IHS report. Ninety percent of that market belonged to LG, but Shin Hyun-jun, an analyst with LIG Investment & Securities Co., expects Samsung to enter the OLED-TV market in late 2017, according to a story to a late-February story from South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.

This increase in TV sales drove a 12% increase in light-emitting OLED materials last year for a yearly total of 26,000 tons, according to the latest issue of IHS’s “OLED Materials Market Tracker. Revenues from these materials were $465 million, and IHS expects them to reach $1.8 billion in 2018.

Kihyun Kim, IHS Technology’s senior analysis for chemic materials research, said “The market for small and mediium OLED displays is stable, and OLED TV shipments are increasing, which is supporting OLED light-emitting materials market growth. Shipments of organic light-emitting materials for WOLED are expected to increase with along with WOLED TV shipments, as more manufacturers are planning to adopt the technology. WOLED materials are expected to outstrip final-metal-mask red-green-blue (FMM RGB) materials in 2017 for the first time.”

That means that for the first time OLED-TV will be the primary driver of OLED materials sales, not cell phones and tablets, and that change will be remarkably rapid — after years of not being rapid at all. FMM RGB materials took 82% of the market last year; WOLED will take 51% of shipments in 2017 and 55% in 2018, predicts IHS. Revenue growth for WOLED materials will be greater than shipment growth because WOLED materials remain more expensive than FMM RGB materials for now.

Samsung’s initial foray into OLED-TV was forced by LG’s agressive leap into WOLED-TV sets. LG used ists FMM RGB technology, and quickly withdrew from the market, saying the technology was not yet ready for commercial involvement. In the last year, Samsung has ramped up its OLED-TV develop program significantly. Initial reports indicated that Samsung was pursuing a WOLED approach generally similar to LG’s. More recently, “remorts” (more than a rumor but not quite a report) have indicated a parallel development program for FMM RGB TV panels, which could use some kind of hybrid approach.

OLED-TV is also riding one of the overall TV market’s bright spots: 4K TV. (All of LG’s 2016 OLED-TVs are 4K). Half of 55-inch-and-larger TV shipments were 4K, and even at screen sizes of 48 to 50 inches, the 4K share was 30%, according to the latest IHS “TV Sets Market Tracker.”

For 2016, LG announced that their OLED-TV offerings will consist of a number of sets in several families, rather than only. This marks the evolution of OLED-TV into a product line-up appealing to a wider range of consumers at a wider range of price points. The strategy is being supported by the construction of a new advanced-generation panel fabrication facility.

At CES, LG’s top-of-the-line 4K UHD Premium sets were clearly “best in show.” With improving panel yields and significantly increased manufacturing capability, and with competition from Samsung just over the horizon, prices will continue to decline and will drive significantly increasing material, panel, and TV-set sales. Finally, OLED-TV as a premium mass-market product is within sight. OLED-TV is Real.

“HDR” Is Coming To Your Next TV. So What, Exactly, Does That Mean?

Thinking about buying a new Ultra HDTV? You might want to wait a few months…or maybe a year. HDR is coming!

I know, I know. It seems like the new TV you just bought is already obsolete (although it really isn’t; just a little behind the times.) You can’t keep up – first, it was 720p plasma, and the market move to 1080p. Then it was 1080p LCD, followed by super-thin LCD televisions. Then “smart” TV and 3D (although the latter died a quick, merciful death).

And now, it’s Ultra HD. And OLED TV. When will it stop? Answer – it won’t, not with overcapacity for panel manufacturing in Asia and plummeting retail prices for bigger screens. In fact, as I’ve pointed out numerous times before, Ultra HD and Full HD televisions have essentially reached price parity. In many cases, an extra $100 will buy you Ultra HD resolution in the same screen size. Or $50 will get you an Ultra HDTV with five fewer inches of screen size.

The way things are heading, your next television purchase is almost certain to be an Ultra HDTV, provided it’s 50 inches or larger and you buy it no earlier than December. By then, prices will have fallen so much on UHD models that it wouldn’t make any sense to invest in a newer Full HD model. Not only that, but retailers are already allocating a larger percentage of inventory to Ultra HDTVs, cutting back on the number of Full HD models they stock.

There’s another reason you’ll want to wait until December (or later) to pick up a new Ultra HDTV, and that’s HDR – or, more specifically, high dynamic range.

HDR is the latest enhancement to come to television. Unlike 3D, you don’t need any special eyewear to see it. And the difference between standard televisions and HDR sets is dramatic – much brighter whites and higher contrast ratios on LCDs, greater shadow detail and brighter highlights on OLEDs. In other words, television pictures that approximate what your eyes see every day.

In the world of photography, we measure exposures in “stops” of light, like f2.8, 4, 5.6, 8, etc. Think of standard dynamic range as something in the range of 8 to 10 stops. In comparison, HDR can represent a minimum of 15 stops of light, with each additional stop being twice as bright as the previous one. (Some advanced HDR cameras can capture 20 stops of light!)

It’s hard to describe the concept of HDR with words, but trust me; when you see it, you’ll know it. Combined with Ultra HD resolution, it is an entirely new TV viewing experience than anything you’ve seen before. Even plain vanilla Full HDTV looks different with HDR content.

Hisense compared HDR on OLED TVs to their

Hisense compared HDR on OLED TVs to their “ULED” high dynamic range system that uses quantum dots.

 

OLEDs can do HDR, too. Here's a 65-inch LG UHDTV showing colors encoded to the new, wider BT.2020 color space.

OLEDs can do HDR, too. Here’s a 65-inch LG UHDTV showing colors encoded to the new, wider BT.2020 color space.

HDR has become such a big deal that a good portion of the Day 2 session at the recent Hollywood Post Alliance Technology Retreat was devoted to this topic, with a couple dozen speakers covering all aspects of capture, post, mastering, and distribution to the home. And to be honest, not many of these experts know how it will all work in the end, especially when it comes to the consumer viewing experience.

So, what do you need to watch HDR? First off; your TV must have some way of reproducing the high dynamic range signal, which means the basic white LED backlight with color filters used by just about every garden-variety LCD TV won’t work. Instead, you’ll want to look for LCD televisions using enhanced backlighting technology like quantum dots.

Quantum dots (QDs) are tiny nanocrystalline chemical compounds that emit high-intensity color light when stimulated by photons, usually from blue or ultraviolet light sources. (That’s the “quantum energy” effect.) Several different companies manufacture quantum dots – QD Vision makes them in light pipes for thin LCDs, while Nanosys and 3M have joined forces to produce a QD film layer for LCD displays.

Presently, Samsung (S-LCD), Vizio, and Sony (certain Triluminous models) sell Ultra HDTVs with quantum dot technology, and are soon to be joined by TCL and Hisense. LG has also shown LCD TVs with quantum dot technology, but they have a trick up their sleeve – organic light-emitting diode (OLEDs) televisions.

OLED technology can also reproduce HDR signals. LG’s white OLED emitters work with color filters in a red-green-blue-white stripe to achieve high brightness and strong color saturation, easily achieving the 15-stop threshold. While OLEDs can’t hit the peak brightness levels of HDR LCDs (800 nits or more), they do much better coming out of black and reproducing very low luminance steps – something that LCDs can’t do without tricks like dynamic backlight dimming and contrast/black level manipulation.

TCL is also shipping Ultra HDTVs with quantum dot backlights from QD Vision to display HDR content.

TCL is also shipping Ultra HDTVs with quantum dot backlights from QD Vision to display HDR content.

 

As of this writing, only Samsung is shipping a UHD Blu-ray player, and it can also play back UHD content.

As of this writing, only Samsung is shipping a UHD Blu-ray player, and it can also play back UHD content.

At the 2016 CES, the Ultra HD Alliance released their specifications for “premium” Ultra HD, a/k/a HDR. The sets must have a minimum resolution of 3840×2160 pixels and reproduce HDR signals using the SMPTE ST2084 standard, with 10 bits per pixel minimum. (The current Blu-ray format, along with broadcast cable, satellite, and streaming TV services, relies on 8-bit color formatting.)

For LCD Ultra HDTVs, the specification calls for a level of black no higher than .05 nits (it can be lower) and a minimum brightness of 1000 nits. For OLED TVs, the black level must be .0005 nits (no higher) and white has to hit 540 nits. If you‘re interested in the resulting contrast ratios, it would be 20,000:1 for LCDs and over 1,000,000:1 for OLEDs.

Hand-in-hand with HDR is a new, wider gamut of colors (WCG) known formally as ITU Recommendation BT.2020. The “2020” color space is quite a bit larger than the current ITU Rec.709 color space that came into use with digital TV. With this new space, you’ll see brighter, more saturated greens and reds and over a billion shades of color. (8-bit color is limited to 16.7 million shades.) And to reproduce those shades of color, you need more horsepower under the hood. (Hence; quantum dots and OLEDs.)

Sony had demonstrations of both HDR and wide color gamut (WCG) video in their CES booth.

Sony had demonstrations of both HDR and wide color gamut (WCG) video in their CES booth.

 

Technicolor licenses the RCA brand, and this 65-inch LCD with quantum dots supports the parent company's HDR format.

Technicolor licenses the RCA brand, and this 65-inch LCD with quantum dots supports the parent company’s HDR format.

What about content? New standards have been released for HDR Blu-ray discs that follow the UHD Alliance Premium specs – 10-bit color, 3840×2160 resolution, and BT.2020 color space representation. In the Samsung booth at CES, a shelf display contained more than 100 Blu-ray movie packages that have been or will be mastered with HDR and WCG. Some of those titles are available now to play back on Samsung’s UBD-K8500 player ($350) or Panasonic’s DMP-UB900 (no price yet). Expect BD players from LG and Sony to make an appearance this year, too.

But the question now is the relevance of optical media. Numerous studies have shown that rentals of Blu-ray discs have been in decline for some time, and BD sales don’t make a dent in the ever-growing volume of transactional video-on-demand, streaming, and digital downloads.

The good news is that HDR content can be streamed or downloaded, although your Ultra HDTV or media player will likely require support for a new video compression/decompression (codec) standard, High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) H.265. Many new Ultra HDTVs support this standard. Google’s VP9 and VP10 codecs, used with YouTube 4K content, may also support HDR in the future.

And what about flavors of HDR? Right now, the system getting the most attention is Dolby Vision, which got out of the gate early and is now implemented on Vizio, TCL, Sony, and Philips HDR LCD Ultra HDTVs. LG announced at CES that they would also support Dolby Vision on their premium Ultra HD OLED TVs. Another system has been proposed by Technicolor and it appears that TV manufacturers will support it as well.

The HDMI 2.0a standard supports CTA 861.3 HDR metadata.

The HDMI 2.0a standard supports CTA 861.3 HDR metadata.

 

DisplayPort version 1.4 supports HDR (4K/120 and 8K/60), including 4:2:0 and 4:2:2 formats. It's also compatible with CTA 861.3.

DisplayPort version 1.4 supports HDR (4K/120 and 8K/60), including 4:2:0 and 4:2:2 formats. It’s also compatible with CTA 861.3.

The trick is compliance with the CTA 861.3 standard for reading and understanding HDR “metadata” that will be encoded with the HDR movie or TV program. This metadata will travel through the HDMI or DisplayPort interface in what’s called an “info frame” and the Ultra HDTV should reproduce it correctly. For streaming content, HDR metadata will be embedded in the program and read by the TV on the fly.

At CES, both Samsung and LG showed HDR Ultra HD content as a broadcast signal, using the new ATSC 3.0 standard and a UHF TV channel. Not many people paid much attention to this demo, but it was significant that HDR content can be broadcast as well as streamed. Yet another HDR format, hybrid log gamma, has been proposed by the BBC and NHK as a way to transmit one signal with both SDR and HDR content, letting the compatible Ultra HDTV show it in the appropriate format.

We already have several precedents for this piggy-back backward-compatible approach, such as the NTSC color “burst” signal added to black-and-white television transmissions in the 1950s and the FM stereo sub-carrier that also appeared in the late 1950s. Viewers with older Ultra HDTVs (which wouldn’t be that old, trust me) would simply see an SDR signal, while newer sets would expand the dynamic range at the high (brighter) end to achieve HDR.

In the Samsung booth, you could watch Ultra HD content with HDR as broadcast over the air...

In the Samsung booth, you could watch Ultra HD content with HDR as broadcast over the air…

 

...or you could see it streaming from YouTube.

…or you could see it streaming from YouTube.

Now, a lot of what I’ve just described is still in the building stages. Only a handful of HDR Ultra HDTVs are available right now, and only Samsung’s HDR Blu-ray player is on store shelves. I don’t know of any streaming content providers that are formatting programs in HDR, although Netflix and Amazon Prime are streaming 4K video. There aren’t any 4K cable channels at present, nor are any broadcast networks transmitting 4K shows.

But they’ll all catch up over time. They key is to have an Ultra HDTV that supports HDR and WCG playback, preferably one with both HDMI 2.0a (HDR) and DisplayPort 1.4 inputs. The former interface is already supported, although on a limited basis, while the latter was just announced a week ago.

And that brings me back to my original premise – if you are considering the purchase of a new Ultra HDTV, you’d be smart to wait until the end of the year or even until mid-January when TV prices are historically their lowest. And check to make sure your new set supports HDR through ALL inputs, not just the HDMI connection.

By then, you’ll have a much larger menu of HDR content choices, and of course you can still enjoy watching SDR 4K content. (And by then, you’ll see that big-screen Full HD sets have largely disappeared from store shelves anyway!)

You Don’t Need A Weatherman

Just when you think you’ve seen it all, you’re reminded of just how sharply the balance of power in consumer electronics manufacturing has shifted to China. In a New York Times story from February 2, Sharp Corporation – a Japanese colossus in everything from LCD displays to office products and personal gadgets – let it be known that they are seriously considering a sale to Hon Hai Precision Industries of Taiwan.

You may not recognize the name Hon Hai, but you may know one of their subsidiaries: Foxconn, the manufacturer of just about everything with an Apple logo on it (IPhones, iPads, MacBooks, Apple TV, etc.) And Hon Hai is no stranger to Sharp, having bought nearly 50% of the latter’s Gen 10 LCD fab capacity in Sakai, Japan a few years back.

Why, and how? Sharp did not fare well during the global recession. Sakai, the world’s largest LCD fab, opened in 2008 as the world economy was tanking, affecting demand for all things electronic – especially liquid-crystal displays. Because Hon Hai (er, Foxconn) uses VA-type glass in its products, chairman Terry Gou approached the company with a deal it couldn’t refuse – except that Sharp got back just 20 cents on the dollar for its $4B investment in Sakai.

Several years of brutal red ink for Sharp brought the company to where it is today. Having borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars from Japanese banks to stay afloat as its worldwide TV business evaporated (and having sold small minority shares to Qualcomm and Samsung along the way to raise additional cash), Sharp’s day of reckoning has arrived.

Those were the days, my friend...we thought they'd never end...

Those were the days, my friend…we thought they’d never end…

The company, which ten years ago had a 21% worldwide market share in LCD TV shipments, sold its North American TV business to Hisense last year, along with an assembly plant in Mexico. The Sharp name will still be found on LCD TVs made by Hisense in China and southeast Asia, but largely as a bargain brand.

Not surprisingly, Japanese banks are reluctant to throw more good money after bad. According to the story, Sharp has seen $10B in losses over the past five years, reporting a net loss of $200M for the most recent quarter. There is a home-grown suitor – the Innovation Network Corporation of Japan (INCJ), a government-backed organization that is trying to keep some semblance of display R&D and manufacturing in Japan.

Trouble is; Hon Hai’s offer of $5B is twice as much as INCJ is willing to put on the table. INCJ, though, has said they will push to line up more financing from Japanese banks. But given the staggering losses incurred by Sharp, Panasonic, and Sony a few years ago, combined with Toshiba’s “cooked books” and exit from the television market and similar departures by Mitsubishi and Hitachi, means the old ways of doing business in Tokyo are probably over for good.

And things aren’t all rosy for Hon Hai, either. Although they are a strong player in consumer electronics – perhaps the dominant player in manufacturing – their profit margins have been shrinking in recent years. The company has branched into electric cars and robotics to diversify, but acquiring Sharp could prove to be a bit too much to swallow.

This is the next

This is the next “gold rush” in display applications.

Gou would love to have that Gen 10 plant running in China, and if he’s as savvy as I suspect, he can already see the enormous market opening up for transportation displays – cars, buses, trains, planes, ships, trucks, you name it – around the world. These displays are small to mid-size, resulting in more lower-cost cuts from larger motherglass and higher yields (and probably higher sales numbers than TVs and computer monitors).

This trend became obvious a few years ago at CES and this year, it went off the charts. Consider the market for automobiles alone – virtual dashboards, center consoles, GPs, rear-seat TVs – and you can see the potential to make billions of dollars. But you’ve gotta have enough reasonably-priced “glass” to do it.

Sharp’s CEO Kozo Takahashi said the company would take until the beginning of March to make its decision. Should the board opt to take Gou’s offer, that decision could turn out to be a tipping point for other Japanese manufacturers who are struggling to see profits in display-related manufacturing and sales.

In any case, this should convince you that the landscape for consumer electronics really is changing, and changing in a BIG way. You’ll see increasing numbers of TCL and Hisense TVs in big box stores this year, competing with the “Big 3” – Samsung, LG, and Sony. You’ll also see more Chinese-branded mobile phones from carriers, along with personal electronics like smart watches.

Like Bob Dylan sang so many years ago, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows…”

CES 2016: Some Second Thoughts

We’re almost a month removed from the 2016 International CES, which was quite the crowded bazaar of electronic gadgets. I’ve already reported on what I saw at the show; now, I want to take a few minutes to do some “Monday morning quarterbacking.”

Quarterly reports in this week from two of the CE world’s titans – Apple and Samsung – aren’t very rosy. In fact, both companies are predicting a slowdown in sales of smartphones, which was arguably the hottest CE category over the past six years (even more so than televisions). Although shipments of smartphones are predicted to rise this year, consumer demand for them is in decline.

That shouldn’t be surprising. I bought a Samsung Galaxy V in December of 2014 and it’s still serving me well. In fact, it can do more things than I need, so I’m not likely to replace it when my service contract expires this coming December. (Yep, I’m one of a dying breed of two-year service contract holders!) And I suspect that many other smartphone owners feel the same way.

Tablets were also supposed to be hot prospects for 2015, with some analysts predicting 18% year-to-year growth. Yet, tablet shipments actually went into decline, while sales of laptop computers actually exceeded predictions. Once again, if you have a tablet that’s a couple of years old, there’s no real reason to replace it unless the battery goes dead.

The only drawback with some of these products is inadequate memory capacity. Most phones and tablets start with 16 GB of memory, expandable with micro SD cards. Yet, given how quickly apps and downloads can gobble up that space, it’s wiser to start with 32 GB and maybe even 64 GB these days. After all, memory is cheap (unless you buy it from Apple).

So – mobile devices aren’t providing the stellar sales and returns we all hoped for. How about televisions?

There’s no question that shipments and sales of 1080p TVs are in a slow decline, and have been for a few years. Practically speaking; if you bought a big (46” and larger) “smart” Full HD LCD TV in the past five years, you already have fast Wi-Fi connectivity, Netflix and possibly Amazon streaming, and three or four HDMI inputs – most of which you’re probably not using, if you stream video.

So why would you shell out money for a new Full HDTV? You wouldn’t, except that you can now buy a much larger screen for the money. But that’s not what’s happening – people are opting to move up to Ultra HD resolution, as the prices for these sets have just about reached parity with same-size Full HDTVs. And not surprisingly, Ultra HDTV sales have been strong and are growing by double digits each year. Still a small portion of overall TV shipments, but essential to the bottom line of Samsung (37% UHDTV market share through June 2015), LG (17% share), and Sony (10% share).

What’s new this year is a stronger presence from China Inc. brands, notably TCL and Hisense. The former acquired the Sanyo brand and factory from Panasonic, while the latter now owns Sharp’s US TV business and a former assembly plant in Mexico.

Excepting Ultra HDTV, it’s very difficult to make any money in the TV biz these days. What we’re seeing is more manufacturing and display panel sourcing from China, as the quality of LCD panels for TVs made at BOE, CSOT, Hisense, and TCL is very good. (And they’re cranking out Ultra HD panels, too.)

2016 will be the year that OLED TV technology finally goes mainstream. LG has placed some big bets on their white OLED / RGBW process and is also selling OLED panels to five of the largest Chinese TV manufacturers. Prices continue to fall stateside; LG just announced a Super Bowl promotion through February 13 that will snag you a 55-inch Full HD curved set for $1,999 and a flat or curved 55-inch Ultra HD model for $2,999.

OLEDs are already in wide use in smartphones and tablets (both my Samsung tablet and smartphone use them) and we’re seeing them in smart watches, too. LG Display’s demonstrations of super-curved, warped, and roll-up OLED displays at CES shows the promise of this technology for mobile displays, particularly in transportation applications.

For displays, we can expect more of the same in 2016 – ever-larger TV s at lower prices as retailers try to stir up sales of hat has become a disposable commodity. You can buy a 50-inch Hisense Full HD set now for $399, amazingly, and 42-inch TVs are getting ever close to the $200 price barrier.

So what’s going to change? It will take a while, but the 60 GHz wireless technology demos I saw in Las Vegas are very promising. Imagine streaming Ultra HD content with high dynamic range from your Ultra HD Blu-ray player to your 65-inch 4K OLED without cables. Or showing video clips from your phone or tablet the same way.

Better yet, how about downloading an HD movie before you travel in just 5 to 10 seconds? It’s possible with the new 60 GHz 802.11ad protocol, as demonstrated by Qualcomm with a bumper crop of tri-band (2.4/5/60 GHz) modems at CES, and a suitably-equipped phone or tablet. This one’s a game-changer, but I don’t think you’ll see many products with this feature until a year from now. Peraso’s aftermarket 60 GHz USB wireless links might help, as they can retrofit to any laptop or desktop computer.

The other category you’ll want to keep your eye on is the Internet of Things. It seems like every gadget has an IP address and can be controlled by an app. Through in Wi-Fi, and you have home security systems you can install yourself for about $250 bucks. Or wireless doorbell cameras, or LED bulbs that double as cameras and motion detectors. (And even alarms that monitor your alarms.)

This continual downward pricing pressure (again, led by Chinese manufacturing) will shift profitability away from hardware to software. Verizon Wireless, the last company to abandon annual service contracts, doesn’t really care what you send on your phone. They just want that recurring monthly revenue stream that you generate. (Notice how nobody charges for voice calling and texting anymore, just blocks of data? The increasing use of Wi-Fi for smartphone connectivity has a lot to do with it.)

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: “Hardware is cheap, and anyone can make it.” Software and services are where the growth lies as we enter the second half of this decade, and you’ll see just how low prices will fall a year from now when you can buy a fully-featured smartphone for $300, you’ll be able to score a 65-inch Ultra HD “smart” TV with HDR and WCG support for $800, and a 4K “action” camera will cost less than $150.

May you live in interesting times!